2024-02-09 · auto-analysis (draft)
First Neuralink Implanted & Where Other Tech Giants Are Headed w/ Salim Ismail | EP #85
The podcast discusses the potential for a future of abundance, driven by exponential growth in computing power, and the implications for tech companies and the economy, including the shift towards nanotech and molecular assemblers. The podcast discusses the challenges and future of AI and robotics, including the limitations of silicon chips, the potential of humanoid robots, the difficulties of self-driving technology, and the concept of the Uncanny Valley. Discussion on the future of humanoid robots, their potential applications, and the introduction of Fountain Life, a company offering advanced diagnostic and therapeutic services. Discussion on the advancements and future of AI-driven robots, particularly in tasks like sewing and surgery, and the potential impact on labor and society. Peter Diamandis discusses the potential of brain computer interfaces (BCI), including Neuralink's rece
Topics
AI AI ▶ 0:00
Tech Tech ▶ 0:00
Space Space ▶ 6:06
Energy Energy ▶ 3:39
Robotics Robotics ▶ 10:08
Self-Driving Technology AI ▶ 13:08
Uncanny Valley AI ▶ 14:56
Humanoid Robots Robotics ▶ 18:41
Fountain Life Health ▶ 25:30
AI in Robotics AI ▶ 28:01
Optimus Robots Robotics ▶ 19:36
Surgical robots Health ▶ 29:04
Automation and labor Economy ▶ 36:30
AI Ethics AI ▶ 38:13
Predictions made
open Unknown: Within 5 years, we will see a significant shift towards a world of abundance where everyone can be fed, clothed, and have access to advanced technology.
“I think we're within five years that interesting you know of course the end point when I was in at MIT as a as a undergrad and grad student there was a guy named Eric Drexler there of course so Eric wrote uh an amazing book um I'm so proud I was credited and the opening notes of that book I reviewed this draft it's called the engines of creation yeah and he talks about the future of nanotech yeah”
Your call:
open Unknown: Tech companies will increasingly focus on technology rather than people, as the cost of computing continues to drop.
“I think you spend it on Tech and you goes to that comment we had the other week where we said you can now build a billion dollar company with three people yeah right uh Sam just set a one person with a billion dollar company by the way so you know it's just shrinking to to absurd levels uh and the value creation I think delivered by so for our for our moonshot listeners your goal to take a moonshot is it's a billion dollar company with one person or a 100 billion person with a company with three people I mean it's the other flip side of it is are we about to demonetize the the economy where money has that much less I I think this is it speaks to your abundance concept right like when once you have abundance then money does kind of does matter yeah and everybody has a lot of whatever they can tip I think I don't know why we can flip as quickly as possible into like a burning man type economy which is a gifting economy and if you need stuff we your scand”
Your call:
open Unknown: Nanotech and molecular assemblers will enable the creation of anything for a dollar a pound, leading to a world of abundance.
“I remember um Ralph Merkel talking about this yeah and he said you should be able to build anything for about a dollar a pound yeah Ralph was one of our faculty members in the nanotech field at Singularity University in the early days brilliant guy more famous because I remember you know this but in one of the lectures somebody said are you Ralph Merkel from Merkel hasht trees and Merkel hash trees are the basis of Bitcoin yeah it's the one-way encryption and he goes yeah that was me but that was like you know decades ago so in the 1980s he conceived of Merkel hashes which then 30 years later so I actually did a session with him about about two years ago an interview I said where are we going with computation yes and goes oh I'm working on a paper that for thermodynamically reversible computation which means you take the heat out of the computation I said how do you get there he goes well if you do computation using molecular bonds to form the ones or zeros you essentially can read your right and then you don't generate any heat I'm like okay and what will that give us he goes oh 10 orders of magnitude on top of this the transistors per per square millimeter at least 10 extra zeros Mor laws another 10 orders of magnitude on just from that right and you're like okay in terms of a bridge to Quantum or whatever like this is so this is you know people get worried that we're running out of um uh computational capability and you talk to Ralph and it just goes so far past what you're thinking and and this is the this is where people kind of really lose their way they get so stuck on oh silicon chips can only deliver so much right and then you have to go to them and go listen we have PK coming which Tak widely abundant it's like a and and they're just working on how to scaling it and people forget that scaling things is an engineering problem not an invention problem yeah right and once you figure out the invention of it then the scaling is actually not that difficult you know it's like you know nothing can go past the steam engine nothing can”
Your call:
open Unknown: Once the invention of scaling is figured out, the scaling process will not be difficult.
“nothing can go past the steam engine, nothing can travel faster than a horse or or train it's over and over again I mean haven't when do we actually figure that out and stop saying never it's insane”
Your call:
open Unknown: There will be a new generation of robots, with Optimus Gen 2 being a standout example.
“I think we're going to see a new generation of robots and like figure is amazing Optimus especially Gen 2 I think is is extraordinary.”
Your call:
open Unknown: Robots will be able to perform repetitive tasks like cleaning dishes and organizing a kitchen.
“when you have a robot that you can say oh go tidy up the kitchen yes and it can go and put the kit the dishes rinse them off put them in the dishwasher put the salt and pepper away Etc uh and do that reasonably completely because that's a repetitive task once you learn a bit how to do it it's not that hard that I think is a game changer.”
Your call:
open Unknown: Humanoid robots will be particularly useful in construction, with swarms of robots working together.
“I think the vast majority of really powerful applications will be construction right where go build a house and a swarm of these robots by the way I disagree with the fact that it should be humanoid there's all sorts of inefficiencies with being humanoid and so why are we building that be a multitude it's going to be Star Wars yeah and like I'd rather see an octopus spidery thing because then it canate lots of it'll have eight arms it can do lots of things it can do it super fast I prefer it to be humanoid well I'm sorry we're going to have humanoid robots and I want data.”
Your call:
open Unknown: By 2030, there will be single-digit millions of bipedal humanoid robots, and billions by the 2040s.
“The prediction I heard from uh from the team at figure is single digit millions by 2030, um and uh billions in the 2040s.”
Your call:
open Unknown: Robots will be in production and limited use by 2025.
“These robots will be in production in 2025 and they'll be sold and they will be put into limited use cases.”
Your call:
open Unknown: By 2029, AGI will drive these robots to do anything and everything.
“If we've got what I'll again term AGI artificial general intelligence by 2029 driving these robots these robots are doing anything and everything.”
Your call:
open Unknown: We will have a billion robots in the future.
“we're going to have a billion robots and you should listen to this”
Your call:
open Unknown: Energy storage will be a GameChanger in the next decade.
“I think that for me is an absolute GameChanger”
Your call:
Numbers that matter
- 30 billion
- 50 billion
- 100 billion
- 100 trillion
- 10 orders of magnitude
- 300,000
- $50,000
- $500
- $20
- $20,000
- 15 GB
- 1 trillion dollars
- 80
- 2025
- 2029