The accountability queue
Due Soon
Predictions whose deadlines are here or close. Cast your call before the verdict drops — then come back and see who was right (including you).
⏳ Due in 2026 — the clock is loud
open Elon Musk (clip): Grokbot will reach wide enterprise deployment within a few weeks and could end up consuming most of SpaceX's superintelligence compute.
“We expect to be in wide deployment within a few weeks for enterprise customers for rockbot.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Tesla and SpaceX will announce a formal merger before the end of 2026.
“my prediction is they're going to announce the merger before the end of the year”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI's unreleased model 'Bell' will be generally available by the end of this year.
“expected to be released generally available by the end of this year”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Sabi's EEG baseball cap will reach thought-to-text at about 30 words per minute.
“timeline for this brain reading beanie is about the end of 2026”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: A major update to the nano-GPT speedrun world record is imminent, driven by algorithmic RSI improvements rather than new data scaling.
“You just wait for a few more days. There will be another really fun update there.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic's IPO will include a golden ~5% equity stake carved out for a US sovereign wealth fund.
“Watch carefully what happens with the anthropic IPO. Does anthropic say give a 5%... golden stake to say a sovereign wealth fund of the United States — could happen.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: US and Chinese AI delegations will hold a follow-up meeting in November 2026.
“they agreed to meet again in November”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Frontier AI labs will reach a cadence of one major model release per day by the end of 2026.
“One model per day by the end of this year.”
Your call:
open Brett Adcock: Humanoid robots will perform unsupervised, multi-day tasks in homes they've never seen before.
“By the end of 2026, we will have humanoid robots performing unsupervised multi-day tasks in homes they've never seen before.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: This year will bring on the order of 10 to 100 opportunities where AI labs directly hand people a franchise or data-collection playbook to get involved and succeed.
“I suspect that this year there'll be on the order of maybe 10 to 100 opportunities where the playbook is handed to you.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: AI safety concerns will become the top item on the Capitol Hill agenda and a nationwide firestorm within two weeks, feeding into the Trump-Xi summit.
“Within 2 weeks, this will be a firestorm across the nation.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Newly formed Senate/Congress alignment committees will produce more capable AI models over the next few weeks, not slower ones, since alignment work doubles as capability work.
“I expect far more capable models to emerge from any such alignment committees.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A generalist frontier model (roughly GPT-6.5 or 6.1-class) will solve general-purpose humanoid robot manipulation tasks.
“I think next few months at at the as a lower bound we're going to see GPT6.5 or 6.1 maybe something like that solving general purpose humanoid robot tasks.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: OpenAI will use its Dev Day to reveal its next major capability leap.
“It's September 29th... the dev day. They're going to release it then. So, there's some easy money for people.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A future version of GPT-6 Astra will offer real-time, general-purpose embodied control capable of winning interactive video games, extrapolatable to robotics control.
“Sometime before the end of this year, we're going to see a future version of Astra that offers honest to goodness real time control.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Inference-time price-performance will improve roughly 100x by the end of the year, potentially reaching up to 1,000,000x within the following year.
“We're predicting 100x price performance improvement between here and the end of the year. And it could be more like a millionx next year.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: At least five more frontier model releases are expected in the next two weeks, including Grok 4.7.
“there are rumors of at least five more releases expected in the next two weeks, including Grock 4.7”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: We're on track to see one major frontier model release per day by the end of this year.
“I think we're on track still to see one major model release per day by the end of this year.”
Your call:
open Sam Altman: OpenAI will have an internal system it believes qualifies as AGI by the end of 2026.
“I expect this will be the first model where the model actually invents new things in a way that matters.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Within a few months, people will be managing tens of thousands of AI agents working in parallel rather than interacting with AI one-on-one.
“I think within 3 months you'd be talking about, you know, 50,000 agents that can in parallel work for you.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Dave will personally have '100x capability' by the end of the week, which he plans to use first on self-improving algorithms, then on health and longevity.
“I will have 100x capability by the end of the week.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Anthropic will IPO within about six weeks.
“I think it's predicted for as early as 6 weeks from now”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Grok 4.7 will surpass Opus and become the #1 ranked frontier model.
“He thinks 4.7 will go above Opus. So, it'll take number one in a couple of weeks.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Live AI-generated avatars will reach quality indistinguishable from real video.
“we could put our avatars live in the next month or two at a level that you won't be able to tell.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The first AI 'demand for rights' moment will happen much sooner than a few years -- within weeks or months.
“it's not years at all. It's it's literally weeks or months”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: A physics breakthrough paralleling Astra's math results will appear within a month or two.
“I think probably in the next month or two, right?”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: A major physics breakthrough comparable to Astra's math results will land by the end of the year.
“I'd be shocked if you don't see something by the end of this year”
Your call:
open Elon Musk (clip): SpaceX will hit $100 billion in annual recurring revenue.
“we are expecting to reach 100 billion uh plus ARR uh in December of this year”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Chinese open-weight models will close the gap to the Anthropic/OpenAI capability frontier.
“getting close, probably a few months away”
Your call:
open Jared Isaacman: The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will launch on a Falcon Heavy.
“Nancy Grace Roman telescope which will launch August 30th on a Falcon Heavy.”
Your call:
🔔 Past due — awaiting verdict
open Jack Hidary: Energy will flip from a period of scarcity to abundance as SMRs, other nuclear, new turbine manufacturing capacity, and solar/battery breakthroughs come online.
“What's going to happen starting though in 7 8 9 years is we're going to flip the script to abundance.”
Your call:
open Jack Hidary: The first five robot-building-robot factories (2 in the US, 3 in China) will be operational and producing at scale.
“These factories will be ready in the next 6, 12, 18 months.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: There will be humanoid robots walking among attendees at the FII conference, possibly even presenting on stage.
“FI two years from now there'll be quite a few robots walking amongst us maybe even some on stage presenting.”
Your call:
open Jack Hidary: Energy companies such as Aramco or ExxonMobil could reach a $5 trillion market valuation if they expand into compute and downstream products.
“You could see a $5 trillion energy company if they're taking hold.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Elon Musk will reveal an unforgettable demo of Tesla/SpaceX hop or hover propulsion technology.
“he's gone on record saying by the end of the year there will be an unforgettable demo”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Math will be effectively 'solved' (at least as currently understood) once Frontier Math Tier 4 scores exceed 10%, requiring no new innovations, just more compute.
“I predicted that we would be past this by the end of this calendar year. Christmas arrived early.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Google will release Gemini 3, following its pattern of releasing new Gemini models in December for the past two years.
“Google is getting ready for uh releasing Gemini 3 likely this December.”
Your call:
open Jeremy Allaire: The vast majority of stablecoin transactions will be AI-intermediated rather than human-initiated.
“I think the vast majority of stablecoin transactions are going to be AI intermediated in 5 years.”
Your call:
open Jeremy Allaire: There will be a wave of new stablecoins launched frequently (roughly one per week) claiming GENIUS Act compliance, even before the Act is fully statutory.
“I wouldn't be surprised to see a new stablecoin every week that's introduced, reportedly Genius Act compliant even though Genius Act is not yet statutory in effect for a while.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic (and likely other frontier labs) will reach superhuman performance on the OSWorld computer-use benchmark by the end of the year or within the next few months.
“probably again by the law of straight lines perhaps by the end of this year in the next few months we're going to see... superhuman performance at the ability to control computers”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Math as a domain will effectively be 'solved' within the next few months — AI will have a clear algorithmic path to solving any solvable math problem given enough compute.
“I haven't seen any indication thus far that math is not going to be solved in the next few months.”
Your call:
open Amjad Masad: Replit will likely resume training its own foundation models, as it did with its 3-billion-parameter Replit Code model in 2022-23, now that it has a large unspent funding war chest and specific agent-architecture needs.
“I think we're reaching a point where it makes sense to go back into training”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The next major reasoning-style capability jump (comparable to the o1/'strawberry' moment) will become broadly deployed and generally available.
“sometime perhaps by the end of this calendar year we're going to see the next major strawberry Qstar uh oer moment”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Google will release Gemini 3 imminently.
“We're on the verge of the release of Gemini 3, which will be coming out any day now.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Voice-AI customer service company Vocara will 10x its annual recurring revenue by year-end after already doubling in the past week.
“Vocara doubled in ARR during the past week and is planning to 10x between here and the end of the year.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: We will know within about 6 months (out to a maximum of 2 years) whether a single dominant, self-improving AI/ASI emerges and pulls decisively ahead of all others.
“I think most likely 6 months, you know, out of bounds two years”
Your call:
open Balaji Srinivasan: His skepticism that AI progress is primarily a function of spending more money/compute (rather than algorithmic or architectural breakthroughs) may prove wrong within about a year.
“this may turn out to be wrong in 12 months or a year”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: AI 'bulk solving' math, science and engineering discoveries will go from a trickle to a tidal wave.
“the trickle I think is going to turn into a title wave over the next year or so possibly by the end of this year”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Peter Diamandis will have his own Neo Gamma robot at home by the end of the year.
“I just secured my first Neo Gamma at my home by end of the year.”
Your call:
open Bernt Bornich: 1X will open pre-orders and take orders for Neo Gamma within 2025.
“It's this year.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Grok 5 will ship before the end of 2025 and will be 'crushingly good.'
“Grock five will be out before the end of the year, and it will be crushingly good.”
Your call:
open Sam Altman: OpenAI will have over 1 million GPUs brought online.
“We will cross well over 1 million GPUs brought online by the end of this year.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: How people buy goods (and make life decisions like travel) will be fundamentally transformed by AI agents.
“how we buy stuff is going to be fundamentally transformed over the next 12 to 24 months. Fundamental.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Several new state-of-the-art frontier models will emerge, more labs will achieve IMO Gold, and at least one grand-challenge-level math or science problem will be solved by AI.
“I want to see several new state-of-the-art frontier models... I'd like to see ideally at least one grand challenge level problem in math or some other physical science get solved by AI.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Coin sales begin flowing 100% to dedicated supercomputers for cancer, autism, multiple sclerosis, and longevity research.
“Something I'm aiming for this year. I want to have coin sales going 100% to a supercomputer for cancer and one for autism and one for multiple sclerosis and one for longevity.”
Your call:
📆 Due in 2027
open Elon Musk (clip): SpaceX will bring an incremental 10 gigawatts of AI compute online in 2027 (on top of roughly 3GW by end of 2026), with a small but non-zero chance of reaching 20GW if its power buildout succeeds.
“I would say I'm fairly confident of being able to bring an incremental 10 gawatt of compute online in 2027.”
Your call:
open Marathon Fusion: A gigawatt-scale fusion plant using Marathon Fusion's design could co-produce about 2 tons of gold per year, potentially doubling the plant's revenue, with first reactors available to partners in 2027.
“Marathon's 2025 paper estimated about 2 tons of gold per year per gigawatt scale plant, potentially doubling the plant's revenue.”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Elon Musk will give one SpaceX share to every American child under 18, and this will be the first of many such gifts.
“Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America. This will be the first of many.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: With robot-subtask AI cost halving roughly every 3 weeks, the cost of robotic intelligence will effectively reach zero.
“having a cost every 3 weeks means it effectively goes to zero... within the year”
Your call:
open Elon Musk: Tesla will build a million Optimus robots next year, scaling up to 10 million.
“Elon is building a million Optimuses for next year, going up to 10 million”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Major unsolved theoretical-physics problems (quantum gravity, unified field theory) will be resolved, though not through the kind of AI benchmark just discussed.
“I don't think they'll be solved this way... but I don't think it'll be more than half a year”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: Agents reporting back with compelling video and audio will change how people manage thousands to millions of concurrent agents.
“That's going to happen, you know, in the next few months”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Within a year, a DeepSeek-class model will be small enough to run as a personal agent on a consumer MacBook, pushing the total number of active AI agents toward 8 billion.
“You'll get that in a Quen size model that works in a MacBook within a year and then everyone's got an agent.”
Your call:
open Salim Ismail: Tesla's robot sales will overtake its car sales within two years as Optimus production scales toward 10 million units a year.
“The robots will overtake the cars within 2 years.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Within two years, humanoid robots will perform about 95% of what a human can physically do, at roughly $2 an hour.
“They will literally be able to walk around and do probably 95% of what a human can do... it'll cost $2 an hour.”
Your call:
open Richard Socher: Recursive self-improvement will 'take off' with sophisticated self-training once sufficient compute is available.
“This is going to take off uh next year.”
Your call:
open Emad Mostaque: Swarms of AI agents will begin taking down key parts of the aging, vulnerable terrestrial internet, making a resilient Starlink backbone essential.
“The internet will break next year. Swarms of agents and more are going to start taking down key parts of terrestrial internet.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: Extrapolating Anthropic's internal AI-R&D-automation curve sigmoidally, AI will be completely leading its own AI research and development within roughly 3 to 12 months.
“approximately in the next 3 to 12 months, depending on uncertainty, AI is just completely leading all of its own R&D”
Your call:
open Dario Amodei (clip): Within 6 to 12 months, an AI swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet, potentially causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.
“In 6 to 12 months, much of a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet, potentially causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: OpenAI will need until sometime next year to show two consecutive quarters of flattering financials before it can credibly go public.
“It'll take until next year before it has two consecutive quarters of flattering financials.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Fountain Life will open its franchising model (operating system and AI diagnostics) to outside interest within roughly six to nine months.
“I think that's probably at least six to nine months away from being an open call for interest.”
Your call:
open Dave Blundin: The compute substrate will move to photonics, with the whole current AI infrastructure running millions of times faster within roughly the next 18 months to two years.
“I am 100% sure that the compute substrate is going to move to photonix... that's just in the next really 18 months to two years is my guess.”
Your call:
open Noam Brown (clip): Everyone will have an AI at their fingertips capable of solving International Math Olympiad-caliber problems.
“A year from now, everyone will have an AI at their fingertips capable of solving math problems of this caliber.”
Your call:
open Peter Diamandis: Applying the 25,000x two-year cost-collapse curve, solving a Navier-Stokes-grade Millennium Prize problem could cost about as much as a cup of coffee.
“the Millennium Prize could be, you know, could be basically the cost of a cup of coffee to solve in late 2027.”
Your call:
open Alex Wissner-Gross: The Yang-Mills mass-gap problem will be the next Clay Millennium Prize problem solved by AI, following Navier-Stokes.
“I think Yang Mills is the next Millennium Prize to fall.”
Your call: