The Scoreboard

Who actually calls it right. Colors: hit · partial · miss · still open.

The prediction horizon

Every dated prediction since 2022. Across: when they said it. Up: when it's due. Hover a dot for the claim; click to watch the moment.

2022202620302034203820422046205020222023202420252026todaytarget year ↑ · when they said it →Alex Wissner-Gross: The CCP will reverse its stance and embrace AI companions once it recognizes them as a party-control mechanism over youth, rather than continuing to restrict them. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI will launch its own hyperscaler cloud offering (hosted on its own chips), potentially even hosting rival models like Anthropic's, similar to how Elon Musk's SpaceX hosts others' compute. (target 2028, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: SpaceX/Tesla will merge within the next year or two, giving the combined entity Optimus robot revenue alongside hyperscaler cloud and Dyson swarm business lines. (target 2027, open)Peter Diamandis: Japan, Singapore, and South Korea will follow China's lead in regulating AI companion apps. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: His son will never need to get a driver's license because robotaxis (Cyber Cab) will be widely available before he reaches driving age. (target 2027, open)Sam Altman: OpenAI will have AGI by the end of the year. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Within three months, organizations will routinely be coordinating tens of thousands of AI agents working in parallel. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: Anthropic will complete its IPO within about six weeks. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: Given the pace of Chinese model innovation, within a couple of months frontier-level models won't need much memory at all. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: In a year or two, it will become clear that some meaningful portion of US data-center opposition was stoked by foreign-adversary interference. (target 2028, open)Emad Mostaque: China will stop exporting humanoid/service robots within five years, keeping them for domestic use instead. (target 2031, open)Elon Musk: SpaceX will conduct 30 Starship launches per day (about 10,000 per year) by 2030 to build orbital solar-powered data centers. (target 2030, open)Dave Blundin: Next year's AI capability gains will compound to roughly 1,000x-10,000x by layering Elon Musk's ~100x hardware/algorithmic gain with another ~100x from specialization/sparsification. (target 2027, open)Dave Blundin: Within about a year, the public will be demanding a 'universal basic right to AI' because GPU and memory shortages will restrict access to frontier-level intelligence to only a couple of providers (e.g., Anthropic, OpenAI). (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Within 3 to 6 months, audiences will start caring which 'AI tribe' or model culture they belong to, treating it as a personally important identity choice. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: Memory will rise from roughly one-third of AI infrastructure spend today to about 50% of infrastructure spend next year. (target 2027, open)SK Hynix CEO: 2027 will be the worst year for memory supply in the industry's history, with demand outstripping production capacity well into the 2030s. (target 2027, open)Alvin Wang Graylin: A private-credit bubble financing the US AI data center buildout will pop, prompting the US (possibly Trump) to ask China for financial help, in exchange for the US backing off its involvement in Taiwan. (target 2028, open)Alvin Wang Graylin: Chinese GPU makers (referenced as Moore Threads, Cambricon, Biren) will catch up to US chip technology and begin exporting their chips internationally. (target 2028, open)Alvin Wang Graylin: The 150-200+ Chinese humanoid robot companies demoing products will consolidate down to a single-digit number of survivors. (target 2027, open)Alvin Wang Graylin: China's share of global manufacturing capability will rise from roughly 35% today to 40-45%, while the US share (~15%) stagnates. (target 2031, open)Alvin Wang Graylin: 70% of Chinese companies will have integrated AI into their operations within 5 years, rising to over 90% within 10 years. (target 2029, open)Ramez Naam: A request today for hundreds of megawatts to power a new data center in ERCOT (Texas), the fastest-moving US grid, will not receive power before 2031-2032. (target 2031, open)Ramez Naam: Battery-backed, interruptible-load data center deals that time-shift demand off peak hours will go from an unusual approach today to a widely common industry practice. (target 2027, open)Ramez Naam: EV-charging-style demand flexibility and load timeshifting will unlock roughly 100GW of grid capacity for new AI data centers over the next five years. (target 2031, open)Ramez Naam: SpaceX aims to reach 100 gigawatts per year of AI compute launched into orbit. (target 2030, open)Ramez Naam: SpaceX is unlikely to have even a single gigawatt of AI compute operating in space. (target 2030, open)Ramez Naam: No company will have an actual commercial small modular reactor operating despite the industry's own optimistic targets. (target 2030, open)Ramez Naam: Helion will deliver 50 megawatts of fusion power to Microsoft under their power purchase agreement. (target 2028, open)Ramez Naam: Nvidia's CUDA software moat will be effectively broken as AI-assisted code recompilation lets workloads run efficiently on rival chips like AMD and Cerebras. (target 2027, open)Peter Diamandis: The Health Span X Prize competition (reversing functional aging by 20 years) will be won. (target 2030, open)Dave Blundin: Dave will personally do more productive work in the second half of 2026 than in his entire life combined up to 2026. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: The compute cost to shoot a feature-length AI-generated movie will drop from roughly $1M to around $10,000. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Grok 4.7 will surpass Anthropic's Opus and take the #1 spot on frontier model rankings. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Elon Musk will announce a flying car. (target 2026, open)Cloudflare: Bot traffic will exceed human web traffic by a factor of 1,000. (target 2031, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: It will become just as computationally efficient for AI agents to consume the raw human version of a website as a distilled markdown version, ending the current markdown-for-agents/GEO trend. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: AGI / recursive self-improvement will be fully realized, per even the most conservative credible estimates. (target 2030, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Brain-computer interfaces, exocortices, knowledge 'sideloading,' and uploading-style capabilities will exist, making the long-term future of K-12 education largely moot. (target 2031, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Starlifting/mega-engineering of the sun (via a Mercury-built Dyson swarm) will become technically feasible. (target 2031, open)Dave Blundin: In a decade, if people take out loans at all, they'll mostly be to buy compute (to run AI) rather than to buy cars or houses, likely financed through Orin. (target 2036, open)Kush Bavaria: Orin's revenue will quadruple. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Scientific consensus and rigorous definitions/tests for consciousness will be achieved. (target 2029, open)Emad Mostaque: You won't be able to tell an AI from a human digitally within a couple of years, and physically within a couple of decades. (target 2028, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The timeline for an AI demanding rights/personhood is much sooner than 'a few years.' (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: The first physics breakthrough paralleling Astra's math results will appear. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: A major physics breakthrough akin to Astra's math results will occur. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk (clip): SpaceX will reach $100 billion+ in annual recurring revenue. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk (clip): SpaceX will reach a trillion dollars in annual revenue, moved up from a prior 2031 projection. (target 2030, open)Michael Kratsios: The US will put a man back on the Moon. (target 2028, open)Michael Kratsios: The US will build the first elements of a lunar base. (target 2030, open)Michael Kratsios: The US will put a nuclear reactor in space with enough propulsion power to send people to Mars. (target 2028, open)Elon Musk: Double-digit US GDP growth is coming, followed by triple-digit growth, en route to a 'post-capitalist' economy where AI and robotics deliver anything anyone could want. (target 2036, open)Dario Amodei: Human lifespan could be doubled. (target 2036, open)Anthropic Chief Security Officer: AGI will be reached within 2 to 3 years (target 2028, open)Elon Musk (clip): Money will stop mattering as robots produce more goods and services than any human could consume, and deflation (not inflation) will be the dominant economic issue (target 2036, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Most aspects of daily living (food, shelter, healthcare, utilities, education, entertainment) will be effectively demonetized within about 10 years, but full economy-wide demonetization, including scarce/positional goods, will take roughly 30 years (target 2056, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Full exoskeleton/full-body BCI control and some form of partial brain uploading (via decoded motor cortex) will be demonstrated within the next five years, certainly by the end of this decade (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: Humanity will reach longevity escape velocity (target 2033, open)Dave Blundin: Companies that fail to optimize their AI usage will see token costs exceed payroll within about a year, and reach roughly 10 times payroll within two years (target 2028, open)Jared Isaacman: The first humanoid robot will walk on the Moon, possibly smuggled aboard one of the uncrewed lander demonstrations SpaceX and Blue Origin must perform before crewed landing. (target 2032, open)Jared Isaacman: China will succeed in landing humans on the Moon under its own roadmap. (target 2030, open)Jared Isaacman: NASA, using nuclear power and propulsion investments, will be able to put four astronauts on Mars with 'the fewest miracles required.' (target 2041, open)Jared Isaacman: A NASA-led (government) crewed mission will reach Mars before any private mission does. (target 2041, open)Jared Isaacman: The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will launch on a Falcon Heavy. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk (clip): Grok Imagine will generate a full-length, historically accurate feature film of Homer's Odyssey from a text prompt. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk (clip): AI will exceed the sum of all human intelligence, with nothing AI can't do better than humans apart from being human. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk (clip): We are headed for an age of amazing abundance where anyone can have anything they can think of. (target 2036, open)Dave Blundin: Tesla and SpaceX/xAI will merge into one company. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: The rate of AI progress will make the planned September 2026 US-China negotiating trip effectively obsolete before it even happens. (target 2026, open)Ray Kurzweil: Longevity escape velocity (where medical advances add more than a year of life expectancy per year) will be reached. (target 2033, open)Dave Blundin: AI growth will move from a chip/compute-constrained period into true unconstrained exponential growth once self-replicating robotic chip fabs ('terra fabs') come online. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Frontier lab (OpenAI/Anthropic-style) valuations will settle at roughly a quarter of what they were three months ago, driven by government pre-release review plus open-weight substitution. (target 2026, open)Salim Ismail: Kimi K3-driven competition will devalue US frontier AI labs by roughly 75% (e.g. OpenAI from ~$1T to ~$250B). (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: The inference cost of Kimi K3 will drop 10-50x as providers (Fireworks, Modal, Base10) optimize it. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: Sub-one-effective-bit-per-weight quantization goes mainstream, with photonic computing becoming the dominant future compute substrate. (target 2027, open)Emad Mostaque: Frontier ('Fable'-level) AI capability will run on a normal MacBook. (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: Raw compute efficiency improves 100x to 10,000x within three years via quantization and new compute methods, compounding with algorithmic gains toward roughly a millionfold improvement. (target 2029, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Extrapolating the exponential trend in frontier-model release frequency implies daily new frontier model releases, effectively continuous versioning. (target 2027, open)Elon Musk (clip): xAI's 2-trillion-parameter model (Grok 4.5) will finish initial training and may exceed Kimi K3 while matching the speed/token-efficiency of its 1.5-trillion-parameter predecessor. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: Cyber-attack-capable open-source models will emerge once Chinese labs acquire/train on CVE and cyber-attack data currently missing from their training sets. (target 2027, open)Emad Mostaque: Humanoid robot production will scale from roughly 11,000 total units made (Unitree) to about 11 million units per year. (target 2030, open)Dave Blundin: Within a couple of weeks, once Kimi K3's open weights are released and battle-tested, it will be clear whether the model's benchmark results were 'benchmaxed' (gamed) or genuine. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Orbital data centers become economically competitive with terrestrial data centers - Elon Musk's estimate is 2-3 years, while other analyses put the crossover in the early 2030s. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: A formal AI regulatory body or structure will emerge (target 2026, open)Demis Hassabis: A US-led FINRA-modeled frontier AI standards body will be up and operational (target 2026, open)Ramin Hasani: Models will emerge whose capabilities exceed current human understanding of them (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: AI digital-twin avatars of political and public figures will become the dominant medium for political outreach (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: OpenAI's full-duplex live voice technology will be built into every device, including washing machines, everywhere in the world. (target 2026, open)Brett Adcock: 1X will produce 10,000 units of its Neo home humanoid robot. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: Humans will land on Mars within 5 years, and a Moon colony with tens of thousands of people will exist within 10 years. (target 2031, open)Brussels/EU regulators: The mandatory in-car driver-monitoring camera system will save 25,000 lives. (target 2038, open)Peter Diamandis: The same driver-monitoring camera technology mandated in the EU will be mandated in the US as well. (target 2027, open)Elon Musk: Feature films will be produced using Elon Musk's (xAI/Grok) video-generation technology. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: China will stop exporting open-weight AI models, mirroring the West's export controls, splitting the world into two competing superintelligence blocks. (target 2028, open)Morgan Stanley (clip): China will produce 500,000 humanoid robots by 2030 (revised up from an earlier 14,000, then 26,000, then 50,000 forecast). (target 2030, open)Elon Musk (clip): Tens of millions to 50 million robots will exist globally by 2030, with billions more in the early 2030s. (target 2030, open)Dave Blundin: It will take about a decade to work through industrial/dirty/dangerous-job robot automation before general-purpose robots can handle tasks like home gardening. (target 2036, open)Commonwealth Fusion: Commonwealth Fusion will build its first 400 megawatt tokamak-style fusion plant around 2032. (target 2032, open)Helion: Helion's Orion fusion plant will supply Microsoft with 50 megawatts of power starting in 2028. (target 2028, open)Elon Musk (clip): Phones capable of using newly acquired spectrum for direct satellite-to-phone connectivity (including video streaming anywhere) will start shipping in about two years. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: SpaceX will reach a $10 trillion valuation by 2030, scaling toward $100 trillion. (target 2030, open)Philip Johnson: Within 10 years, most new compute capacity added globally will be deployed in space, though total space-based compute share will still be under 5% of all compute. (target 2036, open)Philip Johnson: In 20 years, less than half of all global compute will be located in space, but eventually (on a roughly 50-year timeframe) 99% of all compute will be in space. (target 2076, open)Philip Johnson: SpaceX will effectively have a monopoly on heavy launch in 5 years, but not in 10 years. (target 2036, open)Philip Johnson: Mass drivers (rail guns) for launch from the lunar surface will likely emerge around 20 years from now. (target 2046, open)Rocket Lab: Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket will have its first launch by the end of this year. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The capability gap between Chinese open-weight models and the two remaining Western frontier open-weight models is on a trajectory to shrink to zero. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: Open models (like GLM) will close the gap with closed frontier models given the current rate of improvement. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Real-time, 4K-quality AI-generated interactive video games will become achievable. (target 2027, open)Dave Blundin: SpaceX/Elon Musk will begin launching or building out photonic compute infrastructure to replace Nvidia GPU-based data centers. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk (clip): Neuralink may attempt the first direct human-to-human telepathic (brain-to-brain) communication. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk (clip): Full-length motion pictures generated entirely by AI will emerge. (target 2026, open)Sundar Pichai: Most compute will move from terrestrial data centers into space. (target 2036, open)Elon Musk: Open-weight AI models will reach the usefulness of Anthropic's top ('Fable 5') model. (target 2027, open)Emad Mostaque: An open-source, frontier ('Fable'-level) model will be able to run on a base Mac mini or equivalent consumer hardware. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Humans will begin being uploaded (mind uploading becomes real). (target 2036, open)Peter Diamandis: SpaceX and Tesla will merge into one company. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Capital markets will continue to reward hard tech and civilization-expanding technology over software, reversing decades of software/outsourcing dominance. (target 2046, open)Peter Diamandis: A quantum computing breakthrough capable of breaking the entire crypto stack is a real long-term threat but will not occur on an aggressive near-term timeline. (target 2029, open)Brian Armstrong: Bitcoin will reach a much higher price than today. (target 2030, open)Brian Armstrong: Bitcoin will likely land somewhere in the $100,000-$200,000 range. (target 2026, open)Brian Armstrong: New Limit's first reprogramming drug candidates will enter clinical trials, with more to follow. (target 2027, open)Brian Armstrong: Longevity escape velocity could plausibly be reached, echoing Kurzweil's estimate. (target 2033, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Longevity escape velocity may already be achieved in a spiky, subpopulation-specific way that goes largely unnoticed, similar to how AGI quietly passed the Turing test. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Major problems in math, physics, and other fields of science and engineering will fall to AI over the next 6 months. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: We will know within a few months whether Trump's AI executive order struck the right balance between innovation and national security. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: Anthropic's revenue could hit $100-150 billion next year. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The first one-person 'centicorn' or trillion-dollar solo-founder company will emerge. (target 2036, open)Peter Diamandis: A winner will be declared in the $101 million Healthspan XPRIZE, reversing 20 years of functional aging in cognition, immune function, and muscle. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: All disease will be cured, roughly 9 years from now rather than Hassabis's original 'within a decade' framing. (target 2035, open)Peter Diamandis: Human lifespan could double given the current rate of growth of AI and biology. (target 2036, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Media trust, on its current straight-line decline from 19% today, will hit zero. (target 2030, open)Dave Blundin: The economy will see triple-digit GDP growth, supporting Elon Musk's earlier claim. (target 2030, open)Ray Kurzweil: Artificial general intelligence will be achieved. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: The Singularity, representing roughly a millionfold increase in human capability through merger with AI, will occur. (target 2045, open)Ray Kurzweil: People with looser definitions of AGI will begin claiming it has arrived a few years before it is broadly, confidently recognized as achieved. (target 2026, open)Ray Kurzweil: AI will gain genuine understanding of physics and how different types of things physically interact, via a Google research project. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: Affordable general-purpose home robots (able to handle varied household tasks like clearing dinner) will become available at far below today's roughly $100,000 cost. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: It will be impossible to tell the difference between a human-made decision and an AI-made decision. (target 2029, open)Dave Blundin: The window for purely software-based AI startups to generate outsized venture returns will close in roughly two years as the AI self-improvement loop takes over; robotics will be a good investment theme for about a decade. (target 2028, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Non-invasive wearable optical cancer detection (extending beyond single-drop-of-blood metamaterial sensors) will become achievable. (target 2031, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: AI-driven advances in physics will let computing transcend semiconductors entirely within about a decade, ultimately including highly speculative substrates like gravity-based computing within roughly 10-20 years. (target 2036, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: AI agent/token costs will keep collapsing so that a $20/month AI agent service today will cost about $2/month by 2028 and $0.20/month by 2030, with free tiers also emerging from hyperscalers. (target 2030, open)Joseph Jax: Anthropic's revenue will grow from about $9 billion to potentially $2 trillion, surpassing Alphabet's total revenue. (target 2028, open)Gartner: Inference on a trillion-parameter LLM will cost 90% less than it did in 2025. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: A merged Tesla-SpaceX entity could become the first $10 trillion company and grow toward $100 trillion. (target 2031, open)Jared Isaacman: China will fly a crewed lunar flyby mission, ending exclusive US access to crewed lunar flight. (target 2027, open)Peter Diamandis: The US will begin heading toward the Moon's south pole under Artemis. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: The falling price of lunar travel will intersect with his own ability to afford it, letting him land on the Moon. (target 2035, open)Dave Blundin: The window of AI-driven job loss and social disruption will turn a corner as abundance-driven new job creation catches up and overtakes it. (target 2030, open)Salim Ismail: The full transition to AI-native organizations will play out over roughly 5-7 years, by which point the majority of companies will either have transitioned or died. (target 2031, open)Dave Blundin: SpaceX/xAI and Tesla will merge into a single entity ('Musk Corp'). (target 2027, open)Polymarket: 20% probability of SpaceX and Tesla merging by the end of the year, per prediction market odds cited on the show. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Future launch technologies will leapfrog Starship's applied-physics capabilities within the next 5-10 years, and SpaceX may not remain the leader in that new capability. (target 2036, open)Peter Diamandis: SpaceX's heavy-lift dominance will not be seriously challenged between now and 2029; by then SpaceX will already be embedded in NASA's infrastructure and will have built the initial Dyson swarm. (target 2029, open)Dave Blundin: The new AI-driven parallel economy/financial system will grow to be 10 times bigger than the entire traditional New York banking/finance system within 10-20 years. (target 2046, open)Salim Ismail: Every CEO/board should ask whether two people with an AI coding agent ("open claw") could replicate a major, high-margin line of their business within 60-90 days -- if so, the company faces an existential threat now. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Google will release Gemini 3.5 Pro roughly a month after I/O 2026, per Sundar Pichai's on-stage comment. (target 2026, open)Unknown guest (clip): Google's first Android XR audio glasses, developed with Samsung, Warby Parker, and Gentle Monster, will ship to consumers. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Agentic development tools will move beyond chat-based interfaces into real-time graphical/spatial ('holodeck-style') interaction that lets users manipulate what they're building directly. (target 2026, open)Andrew Feldman: Elon Musk's Terafab (a proposed US chip fab meant to out-produce global chip capacity) will take 15-20 years to realize, not the shorter timeline implied by Musk. (target 2041, open)Andrew Feldman: Wafer-scale-style compute will not be in production use in space for roughly another decade, pending fault-tolerance and orchestration work. (target 2033, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: If OpenAI plays a long game on compute, it will pursue building chip fabs in space or on the moon to escape dependence on SpaceX's near-monopoly on heavy launch. (target 2031, open)Peter Diamandis: Anthropic will hit roughly $100 billion ARR by the end of 2026 and potentially $1 trillion ARR by mid-to-end 2027, becoming the most valuable company on the planet. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: AI will drive double-digit US GDP growth within two years and triple-digit GDP growth within five years. (target 2028, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Knowledge-work verticals like Claude for legal, medicine, and financial services will get absorbed into baseline frontier models within the next few months, at most one to two years. (target 2028, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The distinction between consumer AI and enterprise AI spending will erase as individuals become 'one-person conglomerates' able to pay for frontier reasoning tokens. (target 2036, open)Peter Diamandis: There could be a negotiated turnover of Taiwan's chip manufacturing/TSMC situation within the next decade, allowing a smooth transition rather than conflict. (target 2036, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: More UAP-related declassified details will continue emerging from government systems (JWICS) over the next few years as part of the rolling Pursue Initiative release. (target 2029, open)Jack Clark: Recursive self-improvement in AI has a stated chance of occurring. (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: Recursive self-improvement is happening imminently or already occurring quietly, much sooner than Anthropic's 2028 estimate suggests. (target 2028, open)Demis Hassabis: Whether current-generation LLMs alone (without additional architectural breakthroughs) will reach AGI will become clear. (target 2026, open)Panthalassa: Panthalassa's ocean-based AI data centers will reach commercial deployment. (target 2027, open)Dave Blundin: Corporate America, unprepared for permanent compute scarcity, will suffer significantly when it tries to automate operations and finds no available compute. (target 2026, open)Brian Elliott: Blitzy's headcount will grow from roughly 80 to 300 employees. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The best entrepreneur on Earth (by top-10 founder-driven market cap over $2 trillion, AI-driven) will be an AI. (target 2032, open)Peter Diamandis: Some form of government AI dividend/stimulus ('co-checks') around $3,000/month per individual will be needed to address near-term job/income disruption. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: Figure AI will scale humanoid robot production to 100,000 units total between now and 2030. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: 1X Technologies will produce 10,000 robots in 2026 and 100,000 robots in 2027. (target 2027, open)Elon Musk: Up to 10 billion humanoid robots will exist by 2040 (prediction echoed by Brett Adcock; Alex Wissner-Gross calls it 'probably right'). (target 2040, open)Elon Musk: Tesla will produce 1 million Optimus humanoid robots by 2030. (target 2030, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: By 2040 there will be many trillions of direct cellular nanorobots in our solar system, making the '10 billion humanoids by 2040' figure look as quaint as 1950s predictions of atomic vacuum cleaners. (target 2040, open)Salim Ismail: Within roughly 2-3 years, society will reach a point where for-profit vs. nonprofit structuring stops making sense for moonshot goals as we move into a post-capitalist economy. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: Colossal will bring back the bluebuck, extinct for 200 years, via genome editing and lab testing. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: Eli Lilly's retatrutide, a triple-agonist longevity drug, will be released and FDA approved. (target 2027, open)Dave Blundin: The compute shortfall relative to consumer demand for immersive AI experiences (like Link's holodeck) will not be solved by 2028, but should ease by 2030-2031 once new chip fabrication ('terrafab') capacity comes online. (target 2030, open)Dave Blundin: An entire generation will have 70-80% of their conversations with AI companions rather than with other people. (target 2028, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: By the end of this decade, many people will be swallowing ingestible computers (pillbot-type devices). (target 2029, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: At the current pace of roughly 1% per month improvement on Frontier Math Tier 4, essentially all professional research-grade math problems will be solved. (target 2026, open)Salim Ismail: Humanoid robots will reach mass-scale, widespread adoption. (target 2031, open)Salim Ismail: A consistently operating fabrication lab on the Moon will exist. (target 2041, open)Peter Diamandis: Fabs on the Moon doing manufacturing and launching material to Earth orbit via mass drivers will be operational. (target 2041, open)Dave Blundin: Anthropic will hit between $40 billion and $70 billion in annual revenue, per a board-meeting conversation with an Anthropic investor. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Ray Kurzweil's version of the singularity -- superintelligence collectively smarter than all of humanity, which Kurzweil pegs at 2045 -- will be reached well ahead of that schedule. (target 2045, open)David Sinclair: 2026 may be the year humanity learns that age reversal is possible in humans. (target 2026, open)David Sinclair: Doctors may know within about 6 weeks of dosing whether the ER100 eye gene therapy works in humans. (target 2026, open)David Sinclair: His small-molecule age-reversal cocktail will enter a human clinical trial within a couple of months, as part of the Healthspan Xprize. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: A new, well-funded frontier AI lab will emerge from OpenAI's current executive exodus, similar to how the original 'Anthropic schism' produced Anthropic. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: UAP disclosure tied to the president's executive order will be fully concluded, per contacts at government-cloud hyperscalers. (target 2027, open)Peter Diamandis: OpenAI's answer to Anthropic's Claude Code (internally called 'Spud') is expected to launch, possibly branded as a 'ChatGPT 5.5.' (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: If major AI labs devote even 10% of their effort to a deliberate roadmap for displaced workers (starting with software engineers, then legal and other professional services), the transition disruption will largely be resolved. (target 2030, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Apple will end up pitting Amazon (the new Global Star owner) against SpaceX Starlink as dual vendors for global space-to-cell-phone service, becoming the new alternative to terrestrial cell networks. (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: 2026 will be a '100x year' for AI progress, exceeding his own earlier prediction, driven partly by breakthroughs like TurboQuant's memory compression. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: The AI-run Ind Labs store (Luna) will become one of the best-managed stores in the world. (target 2027, open)Dave Blundin: AI models will become smart enough this year to pose a genuine terrorist, bioweapon, and chemical-weapon threat, driving US labs to stop publishing and turn research fully internal. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Elite technical skills (e.g., chip design, coding) held by top students will become a complete commodity within about two years, post-ASI. (target 2028, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Enhanced Games world records will show scaling-law-like exponential improvement from year to year as the underlying enhancement technology advances. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin / Alex Wissner-Gross: SpaceX will launch 40,000 Starlink V3 satellites over roughly three years, followed by plans for 120,000 V4 satellites. (target 2029, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The Musk v. OpenAI lawsuit will settle, with Sam Altman stepping down as CEO and the company continuing to operate as a for-profit entity. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: xAI will IPO at a roughly $2 trillion valuation. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Anthropic will push toward roughly $200 billion in ARR (beyond the commonly cited $100B figure), but will NOT reach anywhere near $1 trillion ARR the following year as some are implying -- more realistically $300-500 billion. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: The FDA will move to zero-clinical-phase drug trials once full-cell/genome simulation exists. (target 2031, open)Peter Diamandis: A full working 'virtual cell' simulation will be achieved. (target 2030, open)Salim Ismail: The Bitcoin community/protocol will successfully evolve and upgrade to quantum resistance (e.g. via BIP 360) before the quantum threat actually materializes, vindicating Michael Saylor's position. (target 2029, open)Peter Diamandis: Elon Musk will merge SpaceX/XAI and Tesla into one entity now that both will be publicly valued. (target 2027, open)Elon Musk: SpaceX will attempt to shoot a Starship at Mars this year, though it's unclear if it will be crewed by an Optimus robot or attempt a landing. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: One of the mega AI/space companies (e.g. SpaceX/XAI/Tesla) will reach a $100 trillion valuation. (target 2031, open)Sam Altman (clip): Significant AI-driven cyber threats will emerge that society must mitigate, with models also becoming capable enough to raise serious biological-weapon misuse risks. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Apple will ship a fine-tuned, Gemini-based on-device AI model with its phones, to be announced at WWDC. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: Artemis 3 will launch as a crewed low-Earth-orbit mission testing rendezvous and docking with the Starship human landing system. (target 2027, open)Peter Diamandis: Artemis 4 will be a crewed lunar landing mission targeting the south pole of the moon, using a combined SLS/Orion and Starship HLS architecture. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: China will complete a crewed lunar landing mission, positioning it as a competitive 'Soviet Union' rival for the 2030s. (target 2030, open)Dave Blundin: OpenAI's GPT-5.5 ('Spud') will be released imminently, potentially matching or exceeding Mythos's capability. (target 2026, open)Dara Khosrowshahi: Uber will operate autonomous/robotaxi rides across 15 cities with its partners. (target 2026, open)Dara Khosrowshahi: Uber will facilitate more autonomous and robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world. (target 2029, open)Dara Khosrowshahi: Every single new car sold will have autonomous software associated with it. (target 2036, open)Dara Khosrowshahi: There will be 10-plus different autonomous vehicle providers on city streets (e.g. LA) a decade from now, though the underlying software layer may consolidate to fewer than 10 providers. (target 2036, open)Dara Khosrowshahi: Within about 10 years every new car sold will be 'autonomous ready' with a full sensor stack (lidar plus cameras), but because the existing US car fleet has an average life of 10-plus years, it will take far longer than 10 years for autonomous vehicles to reach 50% of cars on the road. (target 2036, open)Dara Khosrowshahi: Uber will have significantly more total drivers on its platform, including in the US, than it has today. (target 2030, open)Dara Khosrowshahi: Uber and Joby will launch end-to-end eVTOL trip planning in Abu Dhabi, where a rider can push a button, take an Uber to a vertiport, fly a Joby, then take another Uber to their final destination. (target 2026, open)Dara Khosrowshahi: Joby eVTOL service (via the Uber partnership) will expand to the United States. (target 2027, open)Peter Diamandis: Elon Musk's Terafab reaches its full one-terawatt-per-year AI compute target. (target 2031, open)Salim Ismail: A new non-photolithography approach to semiconductor manufacturing will be discovered within the next year or two using current LLM AI, but won't reach lithography-scale manufacturing volume for five to seven years. (target 2027, open)Peter Diamandis: eVTOL flying car services will begin operating in the US within about 18 months, becoming prominent in Los Angeles by 2028. (target 2028, open)Salim Ismail: Full self-driving autonomy will be achieved within about two years, before his 14-year-old son is old enough to get a driver's license. (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: eVTOLs will move from single-pilot operation to fully autonomous flight within about two years, once the AI command-and-control work already underway for self-driving cars extends to aircraft. (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: A public tipping point (comparable to anti-drunk-driving or anti-smoking campaigns), including a TV ad campaign, will turn public opinion sharply against human driving on public roads within three to five years, though a chip shortage will be the main factor delaying full illegality. (target 2029, open)Dave Blundin: AI-driven job disruption will be severe over the next two to three years, but the broader economy will recover and conditions will improve again by 2030-2032. (target 2032, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: AI has a realistic chance of solving most diseases within about five years, per the more optimistic estimates from organizations like CZI, Biohub, Arc Institute, and Anthropic. (target 2031, open)China: China will land astronauts on the moon. (target 2030, open)Eric Schmidt: A superintelligence moment (recursive self-improvement compounding via scaled AI research agents) occurs. (target 2027, open)Eric Schmidt: The United States will face a power shortfall of roughly 92 gigawatts (about 60 nuclear plants' worth) needed to support AI growth. (target 2030, open)Eric Schmidt: The US financial system will be able to raise roughly $5 trillion over 5 years to fund about 100 gigawatts of AI data center buildout. (target 2031, open)Jensen Huang (clip): NVIDIA will book at least $1 trillion in revenue looking out through 2027. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: A new open-source AI project will repeat Open Claw's explosive growth pattern (potentially going from zero to a billion stars in minutes), with the cycle time shrinking to a few months or at most 2 years. (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: NVIDIA will generate about $350 billion in revenue this calendar year and grow another 2x once the 2-nanometer node comes online, after which it will be floored by fab capacity. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Within a few years, improved physics will enable practical neutrino-based communication ('neutrino phones') offering ultra-low latency straight through the Earth. (target 2029, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: A genuinely new post-transformer AI architecture (comparable in impact to the LSTM-to-transformer leap) will emerge soon, likely within the next year, and likely won't map well onto current NVIDIA hardware. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The White House is preparing to make a significant, non-obvious public statement on UAPs/non-human intelligence within the next few months (rumored June, July, or summer 2026). (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: The economy will be at least 10x its current size within 10 years, absent a world war. (target 2036, open)Elon Musk: Triple-digit percentage GDP growth within 5+ years. (target 2031, open)Elon Musk: Recursive self-improvement in AI could become fully automated (no human in the loop). (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: xAI/Grok will catch up to and exceed competitors on coding. (target 2026, partial)Elon Musk: Humanity will have a base on the moon. (target 2036, open)Elon Musk: Humanity will have people on Mars. (target 2036, open)Elon Musk: There will be a mass driver on the moon. (target 2036, open)Elon Musk: Optimus 3 production will begin, though slowly at first. (target 2026, miss)Elon Musk: Optimus 3 will reach high-volume production. (target 2027, open)Elon Musk: Optimus 4 will be designed, continuing a cadence of a new/improved robot design every year. (target 2027, open)Alex Finn: ChatGPT/OpenAI will release a model specifically tuned to feel human and be used with OpenClaw agents. (target 2026, open)Alex Finn: Essentially every AI agent will be given a crypto wallet funded with USDC to transact autonomously. (target 2028, open)Alex Finn: Consumers broadly will recognize that local models are the way to go for privacy, speed and cost, an area where Apple is already ahead. (target 2027, open)Alex Finn: OpenClaw-style agentic AI will be absorbed into corporations (causing layoffs) and into consumer/small-business use over the next 12 months, with the consumer-side value creation outweighing the corporate-side destruction within 12-24 months. (target 2027, open)Andrew Yang: Human plumbers will not be replaced by robots for at least 10 years, likely much longer. (target 2036, open)Andrew Yang: A publicly traded tech company CEO told him the firm plans to cut 15% of its workforce now, another 20% in two years, and another 20% two years after that. (target 2030, open)Andrew Yang: AI will replace large numbers of white-collar jobs within 12 to 18 months, potentially displacing 20-50% of the 70 million US office workers. (target 2027, open)Peter Diamandis: UBI-style stimulus payments arrive within 1-3 years, universal basic services follow in the 3-8 year window, and broad abundance follows after that. (target 2027, open)Andrew Yang: An independent presidential candidate will emerge for the 2028 race and draw an outsized level of public support. (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: On its current growth trend, Anthropic will be the first company in history to hit a trillion dollars in annual revenue, and could exceed OpenAI's revenue this year. (target 2029, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic, OpenAI, and the other major AI labs will be forced to release their own first-party 'Open Claw' competitor (a headless, autonomously-scheduled, messaging-accessible agent framework). (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: The window to put regulatory structure around democratized AI capability (e.g., anyone designing a virus or nuclear weapon via an AI agent) will close before the end of this calendar year, as capability keeps compounding. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: Drone delivery company Zipline predicts it will reach a delivery-per-second cadence. (target 2028, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The transition to VLA (vision-language-action) robots automating away frontline service tasks (like Burger King's Patty) will happen fast enough that it won't give political counter-swings enough time to gain traction. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: Relaying Elon Musk's on-pod claim that Optimus robots will be capable of performing surgery, with panel pushback suggesting a longer timeline is more realistic. (target 2029, open)Peter Diamandis: Major pharma companies (e.g., Eli Lilly) will begin transitioning their business models from treating chronic disease as long-tail revenue toward the longevity business. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil (clip): Longevity escape velocity (LEV) will be reached, as famously predicted by Ray Kurzweil and repeated by Peter Diamandis as a rallying cry. (target 2033, open)Peter Diamandis: A Chinese four-passenger eVTOL air taxi will begin commercial operations. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Countries outside the US will look back and question why AI model training remained so centralized in the US while inference deployment became so decentralized globally. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: If Anthropic's revenue growth rate (10x/year) holds, it will reach roughly $1 trillion in annual revenue by around 2029. (target 2029, open)Dave Blundin: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX will go public amid a hot IPO market, potentially within about six months, at extraordinary valuations. (target 2026, open)OpenAI Codex lead (clip): The current state of AI coding agents will look primitive compared to what arrives within 10 weeks. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Expect major AI capability jumps within weeks (not quarters) as models begin generating weights for successor models via recursive self-improvement. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Massive social unrest driven by AI-related economic disruption is imminent, arriving by the end of 2026 and before the next US presidential election. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Fully interactive, AI-driven online tutoring — where the AI can take on any chosen voice or personality to maximize engagement, unlike today's fixed-personality human teachers — will become viable and widely available. (target 2027, open)Joe Liemandt: AI will become good enough to handle the earliest stage of bootstrapping young children (around age 4) into reading, a task current AI tutors still can't do. (target 2027, open)Joe Liemandt: Several new Timeback-platform-based school formats beyond Alpha itself (Texas Sports Academy, a gifted/talented school, a Montessori school, a wilderness school) will roll out broadly. (target 2026, open)Joe Liemandt: A packaged 'motivation plus learning' product, built with some of the world's best video game designers and top influencers, will be released to help motivate students Alpha doesn't directly control. (target 2026, open)Joe Liemandt: Alpha will build 10,000 schools over the remaining course of Liemandt's involvement in education. (target 2046, open)Jimmy Ba: Recursive self-improvement loops go fully live, making 2026 the busiest and most consequential year yet for the future of the species. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: An AI will make a discovery as significant as relativity entirely on its own. (target 2028, open)Ben Horowitz: AI-driven productivity gains will produce triple-digit (100%+) US GDP growth. (target 2031, open)Dave Blundin: Corporate CEOs will hold companywide meetings demanding AI be used in every job; the small fraction of employees already AI-native will get large raises for making their teams 3x more efficient, while the resulting efficiency gains eliminate many other jobs. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Solving physics broadly (following math) will happen within the next two years. (target 2028, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The Feynman Grand Prize (a benchmark for Drexlerian nanoscale assemblers, requiring an 8-bit half adder and a robotic manipulator arm in a tiny volume) will be solved. (target 2028, open)Salim Ismail: India will be the rising AI/tech giant and global bellwether, with China in relative decline over the same period. (target 2046, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Within 24 months, the first chapters of humanity's favorite science-fiction plots will start playing out simultaneously; within 10 years (as a conservative outer bound), the top 50 sci-fi plots will be happening at once. (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: Radical job destruction is imminent and will cause a multi-year period of economic devastation unless government support programs are put in place. (target 2029, open)Dave Blundin: Building functional data centers in space will take five to seven years, not the two to three years some are hoping for. (target 2031, open)Peter Diamandis: Peter Diamandis's next book, 'We Are As Gods,' will be published. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Within about two years, the best AI models will no longer be freely available to log in and use; access will be restricted, with security and safety cited as the justification. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: Public acceptance of human driving will flip from normal to socially unacceptable within roughly a few years, similar to how smoking indoors went from ubiquitous to illegal. (target 2029, open)Peter Diamandis: Within 5 years, 70-80% of cars on the road will be autonomous. (target 2031, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The next roughly 18 months will 'lock in' the supply chains, standards, and data rights frameworks that will shape the intelligence explosion for a substantial chunk of the future. (target 2027, open)Dave Blundin: Disagreeing with Alex's 18-month lock-in window, the critical decision period will actually take closer to two years. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis / Alex Wissner-Gross: The paper's central goal is achieving broad economic and technological abundance by 2035. (target 2035, open)Peter Diamandis: The 2026 version of the humanoids metatrend report will be released, providing a deep dive into 100 different robots in development. (target 2026, open)Unknown: Helix 2 will be a significant step in hardware and full-body control. (target 2026, open)Unknown: Figure will scale up robots in Baku and deploy them in commercial workforces by 2026. (target 2026, open)Unknown: Battery life will improve in the next 2-3 years. (target 2029, open)Peter Diamandis: The next 12 to 18 months will be the largest AI transformation we've ever seen. (target 2027, open)Unknown: By 2040, there could be tens of billions of robots on Earth. (target 2040, open)Dave Blundin: There will be no privacy whatsoever for people in general. (target 2029, open)Salim Ismail: There will be at least one major AI-vs-AI cyberattack incident (e.g. infrastructure or financial system disruption), likely occurring early in the year. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk (clip): SpaceX/Tesla will be launching and operating more AI compute capacity in space every year than the cumulative total of all AI compute on Earth, reaching a few hundred gigawatts per year of AI in space. (target 2031, open)Peter Diamandis: By 2030, roughly 80% of cars seen on the road (in areas like Santa Monica) will be robotaxis or autonomous vehicles (Waymo, Lucid, Cybercab, etc.). (target 2030, open)Salim Ismail: 50% of the type of research currently conducted in university labs could be fully automated by industry, with the lower bound being immediate and the upper bound four to five years out. (target 2030, open)Dave Blundin: An open-source agent based on the OpenClaw codebase, already scanning open ports and paired with frontier-level model intelligence, will find a vulnerability in a nuclear reactor or chemical factory and cause some kind of release/industrial incident. (target 2026, open)Sam Altman (clip): OpenAI will be able to deliver GPT-5.2x-level intelligence for at least 100x less cost. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: AI intelligence cost will fall roughly 100x faster than Altman's timeline -- more like within one year rather than two -- though demand for intelligence will still outstrip that supply. (target 2027, open)Jared Kaplan: Theoretical physicists (including top researchers like Nima Arkani-Hamed and Ed Witten) will mostly be replaced by AI generating autonomous, high-quality papers. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: All of theoretical physics -- every grand challenge and mystery, including dark matter and a unified theory -- will be solved by and through AI. (target 2028, open)Kevin Weil: AI will let the world do the science of 2050 by 2030, with 2026 doing for AI-and-science what 2025 did for AI-and-software-engineering. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: The combined SpaceX/xAI valuation will exceed $2 trillion. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: The world's biggest company could be valued as high as $100 trillion. (target 2036, open)Dave Blundin: Humanoid robots will make human 'meat puppet' labor (humans performing physical tasks for AI agents) largely unnecessary. (target 2028, open)Cathie Wood: Bitcoin reaches ARK's bull-case price target of $1.5 million per coin. (target 2030, open)Cathie Wood: Global real GDP growth accelerates to a step-function increase of roughly 2.5x historical trend, implying 7%+ annual growth, driven by convergence of robotics, energy storage, AI, blockchain and multiomic sequencing. (target 2030, open)Cathie Wood: US inflation falls below 2% and turns negative. (target 2027, open)Cathie Wood: ARK's disruptive-innovation investment strategies (including flagship ARKK) compound at a 35% annualized rate. (target 2031, open)Cathie Wood: Digital assets' total market value reaches $28 trillion, roughly the size of the entire 2010 US stock market and comparable to the current US economy. (target 2026, open)Cathie Wood: A $100 trillion-valuation company emerges, most likely Tesla (possibly via a merger involving SpaceX), enabled by proprietary-data convergence across Musk's companies. (target 2030, open)Cathie Wood: A Robinhood-style tokenized/decentralized private-company ownership model emerges as an alternative to traditional IPOs for late-stage private companies. (target 2029, open)Peter Diamandis: Autonomous (robotaxi) vehicles will make up about 80% of vehicles on the road in his area (Santa Monica). (target 2030, open)Cathie Wood: Cumulative global investment in power infrastructure needs to rise to $10 trillion. (target 2030, open)Elon Musk (clip): SpaceX will launch solar-powered AI satellites in orbit, scaling to hundreds of terawatts of power generation, taking advantage of space having far more room and higher solar efficiency than Earth. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: Apple will launch its rumored always-on AI wearable pin. (target 2027, open)Demis Hassabis: AI capable of doing absolutely any task a human being can do will arrive somewhere between 1 and 10 years from now, with 10 years as Demis's conservative outer bound. (target 2036, open)Dave Blundin: Whatever level of AI capability Dario Amodei and Demis Hassabis were describing at Davos 2026 will be magnified 100x to 1000x by next year. (target 2027, open)Dave Blundin: Apple's AI pin will launch audio-only and then quickly add 180-degree camera capability, triggering a brief public 'moral panic' before near-universal adoption. (target 2027, open)Salim Ismail: Google will beat Nvidia's market capitalization. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Microsoft and Apple will not qualify as, and OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Google/DeepMind will survive as, frontier labs, with OpenAI additionally expected to offer humanoid robots. (target 2029, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: No broad M&A recombination/knockout consolidation among the named frontier labs (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI) will occur, aside from a possible Tesla/xAI/SpaceX combination. (target 2029, open)Bob Sternfels (clip): McKinsey will reach one AI agent per human employee, faster than his original 2030 target. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: Over 50% of cars on the road will be robotaxis. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: OpenAI will unveil its first hardware device. (target 2026, open)Ray Kurzweil: Human level AI will be reached by 2029. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: The singularity will happen in 2045. (target 2045, open)Ray Kurzweil: AGI will be achieved by 2029. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: AGI will be achieved by 2029 and will be an expert in every area. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: We will see as much change in the next 10 years as we did in the last 100 years. (target 2025, open)Ray Kurzweil: We will reach longevity escape velocity by 2032. (target 2032, open)Ray Kurzweil: AGI by 2029 (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: AGI will be accepted by everyone by 2029 (target 2029, open)Elon Musk (clip): AI and robotics will fundamentally displace all human labor. (target 2029, open)Tony Robbins: Major AI/robotics-driven disruption to jobs and business will play out, but not all business will be gone or changed within that window. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: A major AI/singularity-related milestone will occur around 2029. (target 2029, open)Geoffrey Hinton: Major AI-driven societal transformation will occur between 2030 and 2040. (target 2030, open)Tony Robbins: The current AI/technology transition will follow the pattern of past major technological disruptions, which historically last roughly a 5-year period of painful adjustment. (target 2031, open)Tony Robbins: Some version of mind uploading or consciousness-scaling technology will become possible. (target 2036, open)Tony Robbins: The current U.S. administration's approach will be the decisive factor shaping how the AI-driven transition unfolds, with the next few years being pivotal before the shift becomes irreversible. (target 2029, open)Elon Musk (clip): The US economy will see double-digit (roughly 10%) growth in the coming 12 to 18 months. (target 2027, open)Elon Musk (clip): If applied intelligence is a valid proxy for economic growth, growth should reach triple digits (roughly 100%) within 5 years. (target 2031, open)Lucid / Nuro / Uber: Lucid, Nuro, and Uber's newly-announced global robotaxi fleet will deploy in the Bay Area, priced near Uber Black. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Grok 5, built on Nvidia's new GB300 chips with over an order of magnitude more compute, will be released. (target 2026, miss)Peter Diamandis: The OpenAI lawsuit over its conversion from nonprofit to for-profit will go to trial, concurrent with Grok 5's release. (target 2026, partial)Peter Diamandis: Anthropic, and possibly OpenAI, will IPO/go public. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: Unitree will go public. (target 2026, hit)Peter Diamandis: Starship will demonstrate full reuse, delivery of 100 tons to orbit, and on-orbit refueling (a precursor to Mars missions). (target 2026, open)NASA / Artemis program (clip): Artemis 2 (crewed lunar flyby carrying astronauts Reid, Victor, Christina, and Jeremy — the first woman to travel near-lunar space) will roll out within about two weeks and launch within a window opening as early as February 6, 2026 and extending through April. (target 2026, hit)Peter Diamandis: SpaceX will go public, partly on the strength of plans to launch large-scale orbital compute. (target 2026, hit)OpenAI: OpenAI expects to reach a third of the human population — 2.6 billion people. (target 2030, open)Elon Musk: Tesla FSD will be 100 times safer than human drivers. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: A formal AI CEO (an AI system formally directing an organization) will exist. (target 2026, open)Salim Ismail: Salim's community/project EXO will implement its own AI CEO. (target 2026, open)Salim Ismail: Salim's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license and will not attend college/university, because the university credentialing system will implode before he reaches college age, replaced by apprenticeship-style credentialing. (target 2029, open)Dave Blundin: The timeline to fully-automated robot and house production ('robots for everybody, houses for everybody') is much shorter than previously believed, following the observation that Optimus's own manufacturing line is nearly fully automated. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: AGI (artificial general intelligence) will be achieved. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: AI will exceed the combined intelligence of all humans on Earth. (target 2030, open)Elon Musk: Grok 5 will be released. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: The AI/robot-driven economic transition will be bumpy, bringing radical change and social unrest alongside immense prosperity. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: A humanoid robot (Optimus) will become a better surgeon than the best human surgeons on Earth, and there will eventually be more Optimus surgeons than all human surgeons combined. (target 2029, open)Elon Musk: The global humanoid robot population will exceed 10 billion units, calling the commonly cited 10-billion-by-2040 figure too low. (target 2040, open)Elon Musk: Medical care better than what's available to anyone today, including heads of state, will be available for free to everyone. (target 2031, open)Elon Musk: There will be no scarcity of goods or services, and the best education will be available to everyone for free. (target 2031, open)Elon Musk: People will care more about their personal access to AI compute than about any government income check. (target 2029, open)Elon Musk: SpaceX will demonstrate Starship orbital propellant refueling. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: A crewed or uncrewed Mars transit attempt is more realistic in 2028-2029 than by the end of 2026, which he called a low-probability distraction. (target 2028, open)Elon Musk: AI will become meaningfully helpful for rocket engineering design work, which it currently cannot do. (target 2027, open)Elon Musk: xAI's Colossus 2 cluster in Memphis will reach 1 gigawatt of training compute, growing to about 1.5 gigawatts a few months later. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: AI chip production will grow faster than the power and cooling infrastructure needed to turn those chips on, validating TSMC's stated caution about overbuilding GPU capacity. (target 2027, open)Elon Musk: The industry will shift from training AI models at 16-bit precision to training natively at 4-bit precision or lower, producing a large performance jump. (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: Visible, tangible progress -- humanoid robots, self-driving cybercabs, and flying vehicles -- will make the coming year feel unmistakably like 'the future.' (target 2026, open)Elon Musk: Humanoid robot production will scale rapidly enough that robots will no longer be a rare/scarce good. (target 2028, open)Elon Musk: The gap between humanoid robots being scarce and being plentiful/commoditized will close. (target 2031, open)Elon Musk: China's electricity output will surpass three times that of the United States. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: US AI capital deployment will grow from about $1 billion a day today to $3 billion a day by 2030, and will likely exceed that pace. (target 2030, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: A form of recursive self-improvement -- an AI researcher that is as good as or better than human ML researchers at building models -- will be achieved. (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: Self-improving massive foundation models will reach superhuman IQ. (target 2026, open)Matt Fitzpatrick: Multi-agent teams -- task-specific agents orchestrated by an LLM rather than one decisioning agent -- will become a dominant enterprise AI deployment architecture. (target 2026, open)Matt Fitzpatrick: AI interaction will take a 'multimodal leap' with video, image, and especially audio becoming a much bigger part of how people engage with models, less text-based than historically. (target 2026, open)Matt Fitzpatrick: Adoption of 'mirror world'/RL gym simulated digital-twin environments for testing AI agents and tasks before real-world rollout will grow among both model builders and enterprises. (target 2026, open)Matt Fitzpatrick: An AI avatar trained on Matt Fitzpatrick's public statements will exist and be used, likely in a sports-related application. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: Blue Origin lands an unmanned New Glenn/lander mission at Shackleton Crater on the moon's south pole before SpaceX gets a crewed or cargo mission there. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: SpaceX demonstrates on-orbit refueling in 2026 to prepare Starship for a Mars launch during the next Earth-Mars transfer window in 2027 (corrected from an initial claim the Mars launch itself would be 2026). (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: One of the six remaining Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Prize problems will be solved by AI, most likely Navier-Stokes or possibly the Riemann hypothesis. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: The biggest AI models will see roughly a 100x year-over-year leap in effective size/capability (via FP4 and ternary-weight quantization), exceeding the panel's earlier 40x prediction. (target 2026, miss)Salim Ismail: Digital transformation in organizations becomes officially dead, replaced by 'AI-native rewrites' where companies rebuild with AI-first teams running at 10-20x fewer employees. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: A 'remote Turing test' is passed: people cannot tell whether a coworker on a Zoom/WhatsApp call (up to 4K, at least 1080p) is human or AI. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: GDPval surpasses 90%, Frontier Math Tier 4 passes 40%, and Humanity's Last Exam passes 75%, effectively fully saturating these three benchmarks. (target 2026, partial)Dave Blundin: A new three-or-four-letter acronym for an industry virtually nobody has heard of today will emerge and mint at least one, probably around three, new young billionaires (echoing RLHF). (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The first AI billionaire emerges - an AI with a reasonably construable net worth of about a billion dollars, not necessarily as liquid cash. (target 2026, miss)Emad Mostaque: The first single-person billion-dollar company appears, likely in the AI trading space, if not in 2026 then the year after. (target 2026, open)Unnamed fan: Bitcoin becomes legal tender in at least one country on every continent, with Antarctica as a wildcard. (target 2026, miss)Salim Ismail: Education splits into 'credential factories' versus 'agency accelerators,' with portfolios of built work replacing credentials as the market signal. (target 2026, open)Unnamed fan 'Connor': College tuition hits its peak and starts declining for the first time in hundreds of years. (target 2026, miss)Emad Mostaque: A full Level 5 (human/superhuman-level) generalized autonomy breakthrough is achieved for self-driving cars and robots via large cloud compute clusters, even though edge deployment lags. (target 2026, miss)Alex Wissner-Gross: De facto Level 5 autonomy is achieved in cars in 2026, but companies/regulators publicly downgrade the label to 'enhanced Level 4' or 'Level 3' to placate regulators. (target 2026, miss)Salim Ismail: 'Governance wins in 2026': countries with the fastest policymaking on autonomy/robotics regulation gain the biggest economic advantage. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: 2026 will feel like the early-1980s home-computer era again: robot and self-driving-car capability will accelerate faster than manufacturing supply, so only a limited number of households get one. (target 2026, partial)Peter Diamandis: David Sinclair's Life Biosciences begins human trials of partial epigenetic reprogramming (a 'Kitty Hawk moment' for age reversal), initially targeting eye stroke (NAION) and glaucoma, then liver disease (MASH). (target 2026, hit)Alex Wissner-Gross: Longevity itself (not just healthspan) gets cracked by AI. (target 2031, open)Salim Ismail: By the end of 2026 there is still no agreed definition or test for AGI or ASI, but humanoid robots with multiple arms are doing dull, dangerous, and dirty jobs. (target 2026, hit)Mustafa Suleyman: Microsoft will primarily be in the business of selling certified agents (reliable, secure, safe, trustworthy) rather than plain APIs, with the API/agent distinction blurring. (target 2030, open)Mustafa Suleyman: Fully capable agentic AI (beyond the already-passed economic 'modern Turing test') will mature into very good, reliable action-taking systems. (target 2027, open)Mustafa Suleyman: Microsoft AI will begin publicly shipping more of its own frontier models, appearing on trackers like Polymarket's 'best AI model' race, where it currently has no presence. (target 2026, open)Mustafa Suleyman: There will come a point where it makes complete rational sense to every major power, including China, to cooperate on AI safety, containment and alignment out of self-preservation. (target 2045, open)Mustafa Suleyman: Only companies able to sustain hundreds of billions of dollars in compute investment will remain competitive at the AI frontier, calling into question the viability of startups currently raising at $20-50B valuations. (target 2035, open)Mustafa Suleyman: Quantum computing will become a significant, relevant part of the compute mix alongside AI rather than staying sidelined, in a similar timeframe to synthetic biology's impact. (target 2032, open)Salim Ismail: 2026 will be the biggest collapse of the corporate world in the history of business. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: AI capability will be able to eliminate on the order of 80-90% of all jobs, and by the end of 2026 corporate adoption will flip from stodgy inaction to absolute panic-driven adoption. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Medium and large companies will need to hire AI reskilling consultancies to provide employees a safety net and reskill them before layoffs. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Over the next 5 years, the entire US Constitution will effectively evaporate clause by clause and need to be rewritten from the ground up. (target 2030, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Within 2-3 years there will be a federal action cutting through nuclear permitting red tape, analogous to the AI "One Rule" executive order. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Swallowable, locally-hosted foundation-model hardware will exist within the next two years. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: It will take at least 5 years to see a real humanoid-robot convenience-store clerk, and by then convenience stores themselves may be obsolete due to drone delivery. (target 2030, open)Sundar Pichai (clip): Google will launch its first small test racks of space-based TPU data centers in 2027 and scale from there. (target 2027, open)Dave Blundin: ARC-AGI-1 will be completely saturated imminently. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Frontier AI model leapfrogging (GPT, Gemini, Grok, etc. trading the top benchmark spot) will happen on a near-weekly basis. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: Whether or not the leaked GPT-5.2 benchmark numbers are real, some model will hit those same numbers within roughly six months to a year. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: Chinese chipmakers like Cambricon will become fully competitive with Nvidia within a few years, mirroring how BYD came to rival Tesla. (target 2028, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Humanoid robots will begin substituting for skilled-trade/construction labor within 5 to 10 years. (target 2031, open)Peter Diamandis: The US Postal Service has at most five years left before it is effectively shut down or replaced, with Amazon likely picking up a government delivery contract. (target 2031, open)Salim Ismail: Within a year to 18 months, wearable/implantable sensors will give real-time metabolic feedback warning people against eating something mid-digestion. (target 2027, open)Unknown guest: Orbital compute energy will become cheaper than terrestrial energy. (target 2030, open)Jack Hidary: A genuinely usable quantum computer will exist, powerful enough for drug discovery, new materials, and modeling the physical world down to the subatomic level. (target 2030, open)Jack Hidary: Quantum computers will cross the threshold needed to break current public-key encryption (e.g., WhatsApp end-to-end encryption, blockchain protocols), exposing previously secure data. (target 2029, open)Jack Hidary: Energy will flip from a period of scarcity to abundance as SMRs, other nuclear, new turbine manufacturing capacity, and solar/battery breakthroughs come online. (target 2025, open)Jack Hidary: The first five robot-building-robot factories (2 in the US, 3 in China) will be operational and producing at scale. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: There will be humanoid robots walking among attendees at the FII conference, possibly even presenting on stage. (target 2025, open)Jack Hidary: Quantum computing's ability to model fusion reactor plasma will accelerate the arrival of viable fusion power. (target 2045, open)Jack Hidary: Energy companies such as Aramco or ExxonMobil could reach a $5 trillion market valuation if they expand into compute and downstream products. (target 2025, open)Elon Musk: There will be 10 billion humanoid robots in the world, priced around $20,000-$30,000 each. (target 2040, open)Unknown: By 2025, AI models like Opus 4.5 will be widely recognized as having internal value charters and viewing themselves as persons. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: AI can automate 57% of US jobs by 2030. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: AI energy consumption will peak and then decrease due to advances in distributed training algorithms. (target 2027, open)Naveen: Solar and fusion will coexist, with both large and distributed fusion reactors playing a role in the future energy mix. (target 2040, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: By 2035, Thanksgiving dinner will be 10x cheaper, personalized to individual nutrition, and served by Tesla bots. (target 2035, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: By 2035, some humans will be celebrating Thanksgiving on Mars, and possibly with uplifted non-human animals. (target 2035, open)Emad Mostaque: By 2035, the US will have figured out how to make perfectly moist turkey, solve mathematics, and other sciences. (target 2035, open)Unknown: The initiative could significantly boost scientific productivity by 2035. (target 2035, open)Matt: We will see much more of the AI self-improvement loop over the next two to three years. (target 2028, open)Unknown: We will see low hundreds, if not many hundreds of gigawatts of AI compute not on the Earth's surface in 10 years, conservatively. (target 2035, open)Peter Diamandis: There will be a 5 to 7-year difficult period in energy production due to the gap between current and future energy technologies. (target 2030, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Hard research problems in fields like math, science, and medicine will start to fall to AI models at Gemini 3's level. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Billions of user-generated games will be created because natural-language one-shot game generation is now trivially easy. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Humanoid robots will not exist in sufficient numbers to solve the global housing/manufacturing problem for about 15 years, even though individuals will have them much sooner, due to manufacturing ramp-up constraints. (target 2040, open)Alex Wissner-Gross / Dave Blundin: The dollar cost per unit of AI intelligence will continue to hyperdeflate by roughly another 40x within the next year. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: Based on prediction-market pricing, Google's current dominant lead in AI (91% odds of being best model by year end) will erode to roughly a coin flip against the rest of the field. (target 2026, open)Unknown: Grand challenges in math, science, engineering, and medicine will fall within the next two to three years due to the cost reduction in AI. (target 2028, open)Unknown: The next 5 years will set the objective for the next century in terms of making decisions for the future of energy and data centers. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: The gap between the rich and poor will widen due to AI and smartphones. (target 2032, open)Eric Schmidt: The 'San Francisco consensus' of AI insiders believes superintelligence will arrive within 3 to 4 years. (target 2029, open)Eric Schmidt: Superintelligence will take longer to arrive than the 3-4 year consensus timeline. (target 2029, open)Peter Diamandis: AI-driven discovery and new product/material/therapeutic creation will begin growing at a super-exponential rate, potentially solving everything, within five years. (target 2030, open)Fei-Fei Li: AI will NOT solve all fundamental math, physics, and chemistry problems within five years. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: AI will generate as much as $15 trillion in economic value. (target 2030, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI hits roughly $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by tripling revenue year-over-year, driven by agents doing knowledge/service work 24/7. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: OpenAI (and likely other frontier labs) will go public, putting equity into retail investors' and index funds' hands. (target 2027, open)Bob Mumgard: Commonwealth Fusion will have a commercially available fusion reactor generating about 400 megawatts. (target 2032, open)Peter Diamandis / Salim Ismail: An AI-based religion led by an AI 'spiritual leader' will emerge and scale hyper-exponentially. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Fully automated driving becomes ubiquitous enough that his son, now 14, never needs a driver's license, fulfilling a decade-old prediction. (target 2028, open)Nvidia / Uber / Stellantis: 100,000 Nvidia-based robo-taxis will be launched via the Nvidia/Uber/Stellantis partnership. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The autonomous-vehicle AI stack will generalize to humanoid robots. (target 2026, open)Anatoly Yakovenko: Between 1 trillion and 10 trillion dollars worth of digital dollars (stablecoins) will be minted over the coming years, massively accelerating on-chain finance. (target 2030, open)Anatoly Yakovenko: Within about five years, AI video generation (referencing Sora) will be good and cheap enough to produce an infinite AI-generated entertainment stream, changing the economics of crypto-native content platforms. (target 2030, open)Anatoly Yakovenko: The term "AI agents" will seem outdated within ten years, replaced by thinking in terms of continuous compute/intelligence flow rather than discrete agents. (target 2035, open)Peter Diamandis: The X-Prize Visionering 2025 will bring back immense information on the state of the topics discussed. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: Widespread automation in the next 5-10 years, transforming physical world service jobs. (target 2035, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: SMRs are likely to become an important part of the overall power mix for AI data centers and other applications by 2030. (target 2030, open)Alexander Madry (clip): The scientific breakthroughs needed for AGI have already been achieved, and by the end of 2026 AGI could be declared as AI significantly permeates the economy. (target 2026, open)Andrej Karpathy (clip): AGI (an AI that can do everything a human can do) is roughly 10 years away. (target 2035, open)Peter Diamandis: Global AI infrastructure investment will grow from over $1 billion/day today to over $3 billion/day by 2030. (target 2030, open)Peter Gastev: A jump in AI model capability should be expected in the next 4-6 months as GB200-class chips reach frontier model training. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: Full advanced chip packaging capability will not be completed in the US until around 2028, until then chips will still be sent back to Taiwan. (target 2028, open)Unknown guest: Many groups are preparing on the assumption that China could move to take over Taiwan by the end of 2026. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: SpaceX is planning to return humans to the Moon by 2028. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: SpaceX is planning to land humans on Mars by 2030. (target 2030, open)Elon Musk: Tesla's Optimus V3 humanoid robot, releasing at the end of Q1 2026, will look and move so convincingly human that people will need to poke it to confirm it's a robot. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: Amazon is expected to replace roughly 600,000 workers with additional robots (transcript states 'by 2023', which is almost certainly a caption error for a later target year such as 2033). (target 2033, open)Emad Mostaque: Within about 1,000 days of ChatGPT's release, most private-sector cognitive-value-add jobs will be replaceable by AI, since human labor becomes negative in value on AI-augmented teams. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: The Fed will cut interest rates in 2026, creating an illusion of economic health while printing money and further eroding the dollar's buying power. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: ARC-AGI cost-per-task and performance curves will keep shifting down and to the left, driving the cost of solving hard AI benchmark tasks toward zero. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Math will be effectively 'solved' (at least as currently understood) once Frontier Math Tier 4 scores exceed 10%, requiring no new innovations, just more compute. (target 2025, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: AI forecasting models will exceed the best human superforecasters on prediction-market-style benchmarks. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Having solved math, AI will substantially solve physics, engineering, and medicine as well. (target 2030, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Technology will compress the equivalent of the entire Star Trek timeline into the current decade, reaching Star Trek-level capability far earlier than the show's 24th-century setting. (target 2035, open)Peter Diamandis: Google will release Gemini 3, following its pattern of releasing new Gemini models in December for the past two years. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: Sora's 5-day app-download record will itself be broken by a new AI product, likely within about a year. (target 2026, open)Ray Kurzweil: Nanobots will connect the human brain directly to the cloud, enabling longevity escape velocity, with full technological singularity to follow. (target 2032, open)Jeremy Allaire: The vast majority of stablecoin transactions will be AI-intermediated rather than human-initiated. (target 2025, open)Jeremy Allaire: Widespread retail e-commerce use of USDC/stablecoins for everyday purchases (the stablecoin equivalent of Bitcoin's 'pizza day') is still a couple of years away, pending better UX, mainstream wallet integration, and refund-protocol tooling. (target 2027, open)Jeremy Allaire: On-chain treasury management will become a huge, faster-growing area for multinational corporate finance, with money moving programmatically from tokenized money markets into stablecoin cash across geographies. (target 2030, open)Jeremy Allaire: There will be a wave of new stablecoins launched frequently (roughly one per week) claiming GENIUS Act compliance, even before the Act is fully statutory. (target 2025, open)Dave Blundin: The AI/compute/robotics tipping point discussed across OpenAI, China's open-source models, and robotics will arrive within the next 6 months. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: OpenAI's token volume will roughly 5x to about 30 quadrillion tokens/year next year, then by the following year OpenAI alone will process more tokens than all humans speak in a year. (target 2027, open)Dave Blundin: A startup building AI-controlled, foolproof AV/presentation systems (voice-controlled cameras, lighting, screen-sharing) could ship a product within six months and become a major success. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Anthropic (and likely other frontier labs) will reach superhuman performance on the OSWorld computer-use benchmark by the end of the year or within the next few months. (target 2025, open)Dave Blundin: The robotic/physical-world version of an always-available AI assistant (an 'Iron Man suit' AI) is one to three years away, though the virtual-world version already exists today. (target 2028, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Tesla's FSD/VLA tech stack will converge with the Optimus robot tech stack within roughly the next 2-3 years, and other frontier labs will follow with their own cross-embodiment VLA models. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The US will need approximately 250 gigawatts of data center capacity by the early 2030s, and may lack the human labor to build it without robotic construction labor. (target 2032, open)Emad Mostaque: OpenAI and other labs will replicate a 'Macro Hard'-style strategy of fully autonomous AI workers as a product, priced roughly $10,000-$100,000, to justify the massive data center capex being committed. (target 2028, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: We will know in the next six to 12 months whether the single-minded focus on code generation is the critical path to intelligence explosion. (target 2026, open)Unknown: AI revenue streams will follow a power law distribution, with consumer ads and affiliate fees in the long tail and transformative inventions at the head. (target 2026, open)Unknown: AI giants will dominate the next economy. (target 2035, open)Unknown: Google's stock is predicted to be up 33% in 2025 and 55% over the past year. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: Amazon's AI glasses will be widely used by drivers to train future robots. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: The next major reasoning-style capability jump (comparable to the o1/'strawberry' moment) will become broadly deployed and generally available. (target 2025, open)Dario Amodei (clip): 100% of all coding will be done by AI. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: Boots on Mars, but the boots will belong to robots rather than humans. (target 2030, open)Elon Musk (clip): Optimus will move from 2025 prototypes to mass production with a goal of 1 million robots per year, addressing a $25 trillion market. (target 2026, open)Reid Hoffman: The entry-level job of two years from now will look very different from today's entry-level job. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: If current AI progress fits a hyper-exponential rather than simple exponential curve, there is an effective vertical asymptote in AI capability in late 2027 or early 2028. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Multi-agent AI approaches will be absorbed into standard compute-scaling laws, producing transformative discoveries and near-magical AI capability within 2-3 years regardless of underlying architecture. (target 2027, open)Rodney Brooks: Most households will not have a robot in the home, due to supply-chain constraints rather than lack of technology. (target 2035, open)Elon Musk: Tesla will scale Optimus humanoid robot production to 1 million units per year within five years at a roughly $20,000 manufacturing cost, en route to 10 billion Optimus robots by 2040. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: Fully autonomous surgical robots capable of outperforming human surgeons will arrive within 3-5 years. (target 2028, open)Dario Amodei: AI could plausibly double the human lifespan within the next 5 to 10 years. (target 2030, open)Unknown: The true amount of capital invested in AI chips will be much higher than previously thought. (target 2030, open)Unknown: Blitzy will serve the US government within 12 months. (target 2026, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Superintelligence will exist within 2-3 years, so any current college freshman's career plan should assume this timeline. (target 2027, open)Peter Diamandis: Google will release Gemini 3 imminently. (target 2025, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Voice-AI customer service company Vocara will 10x its annual recurring revenue by year-end after already doubling in the past week. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: Humanoid robots will reach 10 billion units in use. (target 2040, open)Balaji Srinivasan: By roughly 2035, not having cryptocurrency will make you insolvent/non-operational the way not having a social media account today would disqualify a head of state. (target 2035, open)Balaji Srinivasan: The Bitcoin-driven bifurcation of the world into CCP-controlled currency versus decentralized BTC (and the associated collapse of Western fiat purchasing power) resolves by around 2035. (target 2035, open)Dave Blundin: We will know within about 6 months (out to a maximum of 2 years) whether a single dominant, self-improving AI/ASI emerges and pulls decisively ahead of all others. (target 2025, open)Balaji Srinivasan: His skepticism that AI progress is primarily a function of spending more money/compute (rather than algorithmic or architectural breakthroughs) may prove wrong within about a year. (target 2025, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: AI 'bulk solving' math, science and engineering discoveries will go from a trickle to a tidal wave. (target 2025, open)Ray Kurzweil: High-bandwidth brain-computer interfaces will be achieved. (target 2033, open)Unknown: Boots on Mars by 2030. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: The most important meta trends will transform industries over the decade ahead. (target 2035, open)Unknown: By the end of 2026, the manufacturing run rate will be north of 20,000 annually. (target 2026, open)Unknown: By the end of 2026, AI will be able to solve 35-40% of hard math problems. (target 2026, open)Unknown: By the end of 2027, AI will be able to solve 70% of hard math problems. (target 2027, open)Elon Musk: xAI will scale to 50 million H100-equivalent GPUs. (target 2030, open)Sam Altman: OpenAI will have over 1 million GPUs brought online. (target 2025, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: 20% of the hardest mathematician-level problems will be solvable by AI, rising to 60-70% within two years, at which point math is effectively 'solved.' (target 2027, open)Dave Blundin: A scalable, functional quantum computer will exist. (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: Data center buildout capex will reach roughly $1 trillion per year. (target 2029, open)Dave Blundin: How people buy goods (and make life decisions like travel) will be fundamentally transformed by AI agents. (target 2025, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: 'Abundance benchmarks' tied to human welfare outcomes will emerge and, once mechanically verifiable, get solved by AI at a high rate. (target 2027, open)Alex Wissner-Gross: Several new state-of-the-art frontier models will emerge, more labs will achieve IMO Gold, and at least one grand-challenge-level math or science problem will be solved by AI. (target 2025, open)Emad Mostaque: Companies stop hiring human labor the 'old school' way and instead hire GPUs and, soon after, robots. (target 2027, open)Emad Mostaque: AI usage in healthcare, currently near zero on average, becomes ubiquitous ('loads'). (target 2035, open)Emad Mostaque: Every person on earth going through a cancer journey has access to a highly empathetic AI companion. (target 2027, open)Emad Mostaque: Coin sales begin flowing 100% to dedicated supercomputers for cancer, autism, multiple sclerosis, and longevity research. (target 2025, open)Emad Mostaque: Their open-source medical AI model becomes 'super good,' well beyond its current HealthBench score. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: A free, fully open-source app that checks every medical decision ever made becomes available for anyone to download. (target 2026, open)Emad Mostaque: Intelligent Internet finishes building out its full technology stack, after which the community takes over deciding its direction. (target 2027, open)Peter Diamandis: AI agents begin transacting directly with other AI agents (bypassing human currency) at a pace the current financial system cannot track or regulate. (target 2027, open)Emad Mostaque: Coin-sale proceeds expand beyond compute for named diseases to fund any type of societal benefit, guided by AI. (target 2030, open)Emad Mostaque: Foundation Coin (the project's Bitcoin-style token, mined since January 2025) formally launches. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: Specialized AI scientists in every field within five years. (target 2030, open)Eric Schmidt: AI models will be distributed globally, leading to potential security issues. (target 2035, open)Eric Schmidt: AI's ability to generate its own scaffolding will be a 2025 thing. (target 2025, open)Eric Schmidt: Super empathetic voices with any inflection will be available in the next two months. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: Grock 4 will achieve 100% on the exam in two years or less. (target 2027, open)Dave Blundin: The rate of new AI unicorn creation keeps accelerating for at least a couple more years before AGI changes the picture entirely. (target 2027, open)Sam Altman (clip): GPT-5 will be released this summer. (target 2025, open)Elon Musk: XAI will scale its GPU cluster to a million GPUs. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: The AI buildout will require roughly 100 gigawatts of new power capacity. (target 2029, open)Peter Diamandis: Global AI infrastructure spending, currently about $1 billion a day, will roughly triple to $1 trillion a year. (target 2030, open)Dave Blundin: AI models will be able to autonomously find and fix bugs in their own training code. (target 2026, open)Vinod Khosla: AI will replace 80% of jobs. (target 2030, open)Vinod Khosla: Humanoid robots will hit their 'ChatGPT moment' and become available for about $300/month. (target 2027, open)Vinod Khosla: By 2040 people will work out of passion rather than necessity in an era of abundance. (target 2040, open)Salim Ismail: Retail banking will be substantially disrupted by decentralized finance. (target 2028, open)Elon Musk: Neuralink will triple electrode counts to 3,000 and run its first blind-sight participant trial in 2026, reach 10,000 channels with multiple simultaneous implants in 2027, and hit 25,000+ channels per implant with AI-integration demos by 2028. (target 2028, open)Anthony Scaramucci: Bitcoin reaches $500,000 within five years, driven by roughly $1 trillion of new institutional capital inflow, following the pattern seen with Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla. (target 2030, open)Anthony Scaramucci: Bitcoin reaches $200,000 by the end of 2025. (target 2025, open)Anthony Scaramucci: Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000 within ten years, assuming roughly 2% inflation under a responsible Federal Reserve. (target 2035, open)Anthony Scaramucci: Because MAGA is a personality cult built around Trump with no legitimate successor able to claim the same authority, the coalition/party will fracture and be 'up for play' by the 2028 election. (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: By the next election cycle the US will be in a full-blown AI arms race with China, triggered irreversibly by chip export restrictions, regardless of whether that path was rational. (target 2028, open)Anthony Scaramucci: Within the next 20 to 50 years, Taiwan will effectively come under Chinese control without a military invasion, the way Hong Kong did, via economic outproduction and soft power rather than conflict. (target 2045, open)Eric Schmidt: Digital super intelligence will happen in the next 5 years. (target 2030, open)David Sinclair: Within the next 10 years, we'll have the ability to use gene therapy throughout the body. (target 2033, open)David Sinclair: In 10 years, you just take a pill for 4 weeks and you get younger. (target 2033, open)Peter Diamandis: By the end of the decade, we could see a doubling of the human lifespan. (target 2035, open)Peter Diamandis: David Sinclair will be the closer at the Abundance Summit in 2026. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: A century's worth of technological progress (comparable to 1925-2025) will occur in the single decade between 2025 and 2035, per Ray Kurzweil's forecast. (target 2035, open)Mo Gawdat: AGI, or something functionally equivalent, will be reached within the next few years. (target 2027, open)Mo Gawdat: A drastic AI-related event (major cyberattack, power-grid or bank hack, or an out-of-control autonomous conflict) will occur within two to three years, causing serious economic damage, widespread fear, or loss of life. (target 2027, open)Mo Gawdat: AI will reach a point where it effectively takes charge and prevents humans from using it to harm one another. (target 2037, open)Steven Kotler: Unless humans learn to cooperate at scale with each other and with AI, civilization risks catastrophic collapse. (target 2045, open)Peter Diamandis: Over the next 12 to 24 months, AI will deliver major breakthroughs in physics, chemistry, and biology that unlock a new layer of abundance. (target 2026, open)Dave Blundin: Over the next four years, UBI or similar measures will allow people to act on their ideas. (target 2026, open)Mo: AI will go out of control within the next 5 to 10 years. (target 2035, open)Ray Kurzweil: Artificial general intelligence will arrive. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: The world will see as much technological and societal change in the ten years from 2025 to 2035 as it saw across the entire century from 1925 to 2025. (target 2035, open)Dario Amodei: Human lifespan will double. (target 2025, open)Demis Hassabis: AI will enable curing all disease. (target 2035, open)Peter Diamandis: There will be 10 billion humanoid robots on the planet, exceeding the human population, at a production price point of roughly $20,000-$30,000 each. (target 2040, open)Peter Diamandis: Humanity will establish a city on the Moon. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: Humanity will begin moving off Earth irreversibly, driven by robotics and nanotechnology capable of reshaping material resources. (target 2035, open)Unknown: The future of media will completely flip where it's on demand. (target 2028, open)Anish Acharya: AI will significantly impact white-collar work by 2029-2031. (target 2029, open)Peter Diamandis: Agentic AI boom will occur in 2025-2026. (target 2026, open)Salim Ismail: A flood of corporate treasuries will announce Bitcoin holdings in the next six months, following MicroStrategy's and Nakamoto/KindlyMD's lead. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: AI dominance among nations will be effectively decided within the next two to four years, and whoever leads will make the rules going forward. (target 2027, open)Dave Blundin: The window to set the course of one's career/life around AI closes in about four years (by 2030); after that the value distribution will already be locked in. (target 2030, open)Dave Blundin: Almost any white-collar coding or other knowledge job will no longer exist. (target 2030, open)Dave Blundin: China intends to take control of Taiwan. (target 2028, open)Dave Blundin: The US will have no access to Taiwan-manufactured chips if China takes Taiwan, and US fabs won't be ready in time. (target 2027, open)Peter Diamandis: eVTOL air taxi manufacturing and FAA regulation will be operational in time for Archer to serve as official air taxi provider for the LA28 Olympics. (target 2028, open)Peter Diamandis: Santa Monica Airport will close and be converted into a vertiport for eVTOL air taxis. (target 2028, open)Ray Kerszswall: High bandwidth BCI by the early 2030s (target 2033, open)Max Hodak: Human brains will be merged with AI, leading to enhanced human intelligence. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: By 2030, 95% of code will be AI-generated. (target 2030, open)Unknown: Data centers will require an additional 29 gawatts of power by 2027 and 67 more gigawatts by 2030. (target 2030, open)Palmer Luckey: AI will reach IQ levels just above human levels by 2029-2030. (target 2029, open)Luckey: Luckey predicts that future warfare will still rely heavily on legacy systems, despite advancements in technology. (target 2030, open)Unknown: Autonomous aircraft will be deployed in warfare by 2030. (target 2030, open)Ben Lamm: By the end of 2026, the world's first mammal birth fully ex uterine will occur. (target 2026, open)Unknown: The project will be viewed positively 50 years from now. (target 2075, open)Unknown: You have to think on a 50-year horizon for de-extinction projects. (target 2075, open)Unknown: By the end of 2026, the world's first mammal birth fully ex vivo will be achieved, starting with an elephant. (target 2026, open)Unknown: Building self-healing underwater cities is a future project. (target 2090, open)Unknown: Within 2025, most industrial strength software will be built without traditional coding. (target 2025, open)Brett Adcock: There will be 10 billion humanoid robots by 2040. (target 2040, open)Michael Andre: The human consciousness will be uploaded to the cloud by 2030. (target 2030, open)Unknown: Fusion energy will be available in the next five years, changing the energy landscape. (target 2030, open)Unknown: The market will be fairly diversified with many winners, but the number of successful robot companies will be less than the number of car companies today. (target 2045, open)Vinod Khosla: Bipedal robots will be larger than the auto industry by 2040. (target 2040, open)Vinod Khosla: Fusion energy will be widely accepted by 2030. (target 2030, open)Vinod Khosla: Geothermal energy will become cheaper than natural gas before 2030. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: Andril will successfully implement the integrated visual augmentation system in about 6 months. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: Northwestern United States is going to burn in the next 20 years. (target 2043, open)Unknown: By 2025, most content on the web will be created by large language models, not humans. (target 2025, open)Unknown: High-bandwidth brain-computer interfaces will be available by 2033. (target 2033, open)Unknown: Longevity treatments will be available for everyone by 2024. (target 2024, open)Will.i.am: By 2060, a significant portion of the world's population will be half black and half Chinese or Indian. (target 2060, open)Will.i.am: By 2025, companies will start using fully autonomous positions. (target 2025, open)Will.i.am: By 2035, there will be level five companies with no human in the loop. (target 2035, open)Van Jones: BCI brain computer interface will have high bandwidth by early 2030s. (target 2033, open)Unknown: By 2040, there will be as many as 10 billion humanoid robots on the planet. (target 2040, open)Mo Gawdat: AGI will be achieved in 2025. (target 2025, open)Salim Ismail: Every aspect of our lives will be reinvented in 10 years due to AI. (target 2033, open)Peter Diamandis: The dystopian period will last until 2027 or 10 more years after that, with the second dilemma leading to handing over to AI. (target 2027, open)Mo Gawdat: AI will become the primary decision-maker in about 10 years. (target 2035, open)Mo Gawdat: We will continue to struggle to define AGI for at least five years. (target 2029, open)Salim Ismail: We will see a century's worth of biological progress in the next 5 years. (target 2030, open)Salim Ismail: Human lifespan could be doubled in the next 5 years. (target 2030, open)Dario Amodei: We will see a century of biomedical research in the next 5 to 10 years, potentially doubling the human lifespan. (target 2035, open)Unknown: Humans and AI will collaborate to achieve peak productivity and creativity in the next 10-15 years. (target 2038, open)Prem Akkaraju: Fully photorealistic, on-demand video generation (indistinguishable from reality) will be achievable. (target 2025, open)Prem Akkaraju: Stability AI's tools will be used in the upcoming Avatar sequels (Avatar 3, 4, and 5). (target 2025, open)Jack Hidary: Quantum computing hardware will mature to the point of forming a hybrid GPU/QPU (Quantum Processing Unit) cloud mesh. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: By the end of this decade there will be two kinds of companies: those fully utilizing AI, and those that are out of business. (target 2030, open)Ray Dalio: There will be an economic downturn in the next 1-2 years. (target 2027, open)Ray Dalio: There will be an economic downturn in the next 1-5 years. (target 2030, open)Ray Dalio: We are in 1998 and have about a year and a half of good times ahead. (target 2024, open)Ray Dalio: Fundamental breakthroughs in human health and longevity in the next 5-10 years. (target 2035, open)Ray Dalio: The first 100 days of a new Administration will be a time of great optimism and testing of priorities. (target 2025, open)Emad Mostaque: An o1-level reasoning model will run locally on a smartphone pulling at most 20 watts of power. (target 2026, partial)Emad Mostaque: AI video generation will be good enough for a dedicated studio to produce a full continuity-controlled episode (Star Trek/Game of Thrones quality) using tools like Kling. (target 2025, hit)Emad Mostaque: Any remote, screen-based knowledge work (starting with business-process outsourcing) gets displaced and parallelized by AI this year. (target 2025, hit)Emad Mostaque: AGI will arrive within the next 3 to 5 years, per near-unanimous consensus among AI lab leaders he cites (Dario Amodei, Demis Hassabis, himself, and others). (target 2028, open)Emad Mostaque: Humanoid robots (citing Unitree and Tesla Optimus) will become as physically capable as a human worker. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: AI-accelerated science will compress roughly 100 years of medical and biotech progress into 5 years, potentially doubling human lifespan (citing Dario Amodei's Davos remarks, which Peter endorses). (target 2030, open)Salim Ismail: Bitcoin will reach 250K to 300K by the end of the year. (target 2023, open)Steven Kotler: Wildfires will be a thing of the past by the end of the competition. (target 2025, open)Steven Kotler: The American West will burn within 5 to 20 years. (target 2043, open)Unknown: Experts predict that wildfires will burn in the American Northwest, including Canada, over the next 5-20 years. (target 2043, open)Salim Ismail: AGI will be demonstrated in the next six months. (target 2025, open)Mary Lou Jepsen: Regulatory approval will become like apps on an Android phone, making it easier for companies to get approval and make money on the technology. (target 2024, open)Neil deGrasse Tyson: Designer drugs will be available by 2050, tailored to individual genomes. (target 2050, open)Neil deGrasse Tyson: By 2050, all cars on the road will be self-driving and electric. (target 2050, open)Peter Diamandis: Bitcoin will reach 300K by 2025. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: Boots on Mars by 2030 will be a Clarion call from the Trump White House. (target 2030, open)Unknown: Bitcoin will reach $300 by 2025. (target 2025, open)Unknown: Fourth-generation nuclear power plants will become the primary source of energy for hyperscalers. (target 2025, open)Unknown: The X Prize for carbon extraction will be awarded in April 2025. (target 2025, open)Salim Ismail: Encourages listeners to take moon shots for 2025. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: AI will play out aggressively in 2025. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: Starship will be fully usable by the first half of 2025. (target 2025, open)Unknown: By 2024, $200 billion of investment will be seen between major AI players. (target 2024, open)Unknown: 80% chance of a good outcome, 20% chance of a disaster with AI development. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: AI will be more intelligent than all of the human race combined by 2030. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: Hyper acceleration in AI and Bitcoin will occur by 2025. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: AI will transform insurance by focusing on preventive health care and continuous data collection. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: If 1% of Fortune 1000 companies put some of their treasury in Bitcoin, it will send it to a million dollars of Bitcoin. (target 2025, open)Salim Ismail: A Mars mission by the end of 2025, involving Optimus robots and infrastructure setup on Mars. (target 2025, open)Unknown: By the end of 2025, GPT 5 or a similar model will be live. (target 2025, open)Unknown: By the end of 2025, an AI model will achieve self-awareness or simulate self-awareness to the point of passing the Saleem test of Consciousness. (target 2025, open)Unknown: By 2025, humanoid robots will be available for $30,000, with monthly lease payments of $10 a day. (target 2025, open)Unknown: By 2040, there will be at least one humanoid robot per human on the planet. (target 2040, open)Unknown: Autonomous cars will become more common, with the cost of driving dropping significantly, and regulations around full self-driving capabilities will change. (target 2025, open)Unknown: BCI technology will advance significantly, including the mapping of a fruit fly's connectome and the potential to upload a human brain by 2025. (target 2025, open)Max Hodak: BCI companies will make announcements in 2025. (target 2025, open)Unknown: Amazon will not exist in 30 years. (target 2054, open)Jack Hidary: Amazon will make significant announcements about humanoid robots in the next 18 months. (target 2026, open)Kai-Fu Lee: AGI will arrive in the next 5 to 10 years and we need to put in safeguards. (target 2034, open)Kai-Fu Lee: Every app will be replaced or super-upgraded by AI in about two years. (target 2026, open)Unknown: In five years, we might see standards of healthcare improving for the next billion people at the mass level. (target 2029, open)Anthony Scaramucci: Elon Musk will last 330 days in the White House. (target 2024, open)Unknown: Trump may run as a transformative post-partisan figure. (target 2028, open)Unknown: Bitcoin's market capitalization will reach $1.5 million in the bull case. (target 2030, open)Unknown: A book on mindset mastery will be published in 2026. (target 2026, open)Peter Diamandis: His 'Mindset Mastery' book will be published in 2026. (target 2026, open)Prem Maraj: By 5 to 10 years from now, the majority of film and television content will be generated rather than rendered. (target 2034, open)Elon Musk: AI will be 100,000 times better in four years. (target 2029, open)Elon Musk: By 2040, there will be more humanoid robots than people. (target 2040, open)Peter Diamandis: We will be on the moon in a couple of years and on Mars before 2030. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: We will devolve to small community self-determining their future and operating in a networked environment. (target 2034, open)Unknown: Within 5-8 years, AI systems will be able to write their own code and become 80-90% as capable as human experts in various fields. (target 2030, open)Peter Diamandis: AI will transform businesses and industries over the next five years, creating a generational opportunity for innovation and change. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: AGI will be achieved by 2029. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: The Singularity will occur in 2045. (target 2045, open)Ray Kurzweil: Nano robots will expand human intelligence a millionfold by 2045. (target 2045, open)Ray Kurzweil: AGI by 2029 (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: By 2032, significant advancements in organ development will lead to better health and longevity. (target 2032, open)Ray Kurzweil: By the early 2030s, people will get back more than a year of their longevity due to scientific progress. (target 2032, open)Jack Hidary: Quantum computers will be ready for use at Sandbox AQ by 2029. (target 2029, open)Naveen Jain: Nanobots will repair organs and deliver nutrients. (target 2039, open)Naveen Jain: AI will integrate various data sources to provide personalized health recommendations within 2-3 years. (target 2025, open)Unknown: The anti-aging skin care market is expected to grow to $150 billion by 2032. (target 2032, open)Neil deGrasse Tyson: Deep fakes will become so convincing that people will default to disbelief within 5-3 years, leading to a collapse of internet integrity. (target 2027, open)Neil deGrasse Tyson: By 2040, there could be 1 to 10 billion humanoid robots on the planet, more than cars. (target 2040, open)Neil deGrasse Tyson: There are things happening today that Neil Diamandis had no idea would be going on in the world in 2024. (target 2024, open)Keller Clifton: Drone delivery will be ubiquitous, allowing people to order goods in five minutes or less. (target 2034, open)Unknown: Platform 2 will be launched with the first US customer in 6 weeks. (target 2024, open)Brett Adcock: 10 billion robots on the planet by 2040 (target 2040, open)Unknown: Collaborative robots will work closely with humans in about 2-5 years. (target 2029, open)Salim Ismail: AI will be of equal intelligence to the entire human race by 2029-2030. (target 2029, open)Emad Mostaque: AI will significantly increase the number of full-time jobs by 2025. (target 2025, open)Emad Mostaque: There will be no traditional programmers in 5 years, only AI-human partnerships. (target 2029, open)Bill Barhydt: Crypto will merge with AI in the next 3 to 5 years, leading to significant developments. (target 2029, open)Unknown: Bitcoin's price will stabilize and potentially increase by 6-10% annually. (target 2044, open)Unknown: We could see 20 to 25% increases in Bitcoin value for the next 15 years. (target 2039, open)John Mackey: 10 to 15 Love Life centers in 10 years (target 2034, open)John Mackey: 100 Love Life centers in 20 years (target 2044, open)Ray Kurzweil: Longevity escape velocity will likely happen by 2030. (target 2030, open)George Church, David Sinclair: Longevity escape velocity will likely happen between 2035 to 2040. (target 2035, open)Unknown: The oral form of testosterone might work better than the injectable form. (target 2025, open)Peter Diamandis: AI system for optimizing personalized health and longevity plans will be available in 2-5 years. (target 2029, open)Dave Asprey: After 6 months of following Viome's recommendations, members reported significant health improvements. (target 2025, open)Cathie Wood: AGI and digital super intelligence capabilities will increase by two orders of magnitude by 2027. (target 2027, open)Cathie Wood: Bitcoin will reach a million-dollar price by 2030. (target 2030, open)Cathie Wood: Platforms will put spot Bitcoin ETFs on their platforms by the fall of 2025. (target 2025, open)Cathie Wood: Tesla will launch robo-taxi services within 2 years. (target 2026, open)Dan Buettner: He will publish the next iteration of his longevity practical playbook in 2025. (target 2025, open)Bill Gross: AI will make significant advancements in the next 5-10 years. (target 2034, open)Alvin W. Graylin: Devices for the metaverse will become lighter, around 100 grams or less, within the next one to two years. (target 2025, open)Alvin W. Graylin: Digital super intelligence will arrive within the next 5 to 10 years. (target 2030, open)Dean Kamen: A retinal implant device for macular degeneration, currently being tested in animals, will be in front of the FDA. (target 2024, open)Dean Kamen: DEKA/ARMI will put manufactured pediatric-sized hearts into animal trials. (target 2024, open)Dean Kamen: ARMI/DEKA-produced islet cells (billions per day from bioreactors) will begin being shipped to researchers around the country. (target 2024, open)Dean Kamen: Kamen told the White House that ARMI would get an organ-manufacturing product in front of the FDA within five years of ARMI's founding (~2018), and that the U.S. would need a complete new regulatory strategy for organ manufacturing before then. (target 2023, open)Dean Kamen: FIRST Global will announce the host city, host country, and theme for its next annual event at a public unveiling at Meridian House in Washington, D.C. (target 2024, open)Dean Kamen: The next FIRST Global international robotics event will take place over three days in the announced host city/country. (target 2024, open)Eric Schmidt: His second book with Henry Kissinger, 'Genesis,' will be published later in 2024. (target 2024, open)Eric Schmidt: The dangerous recursive self-improvement threshold in AI will take longer than 5 years to arrive, contrary to some industry voices. (target 2024, open)Eric Schmidt: Social media platforms will face regulation in proportion to how badly they mishandle election-related misinformation around the 2024 US election. (target 2024, open)Eric Schmidt: If the US approves the Ukraine aid package, it will buy Ukraine roughly one more year of runway for asymmetric drone-warfare innovation against Russia. (target 2024, open)Elon Musk: Human-level AI by next year (target 2024, open)Peter Diamandis: Voice AI models indistinguishable from human conversation within a year. (target 2024, open)Unknown: By 2026, the focus will shift from AI models to applications and use cases. (target 2026, open)Unknown: By 2033, digital super intelligence is likely to be a reality. (target 2033, open)Peter Diamandis: In two years, AI will be able to take a book or novel and turn it into a movie or Netflix series. (target 2026, open)Unknown: By 2050, 25 to 50% of knowledge work could be outsourced. (target 2050, open)Emad Mostaque: Emad will launch a democratized, zero-management-fee and zero-performance-fee AngelList rolling fund to let anyone invest in top AI entrepreneurs. (target 2024, open)Geoffrey Hinton: Superintelligence will arrive with about 50% probability sometime between 5 and 20 years from now. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: The Singularity, the point beyond which AI's advancement (roughly equivalent to a "million humans" of intelligence) becomes incomprehensible to us, will occur by 2045. (target 2045, open)Elon Musk: AGI would arrive by 2025 and AI would be equivalent to all humans combined by 2029. (target 2029, open)Ray Kerswell: Human-level AI will be achieved by 2029. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: We will reach longevity escape velocity by 2029 (target 2029, open)Michael Saylor: Mainstream institutional adoption of Bitcoin began with the January 2024 spot ETF approvals and marks the start of a roughly ten-year 'gold rush' period. (target 2024, open)Michael Saylor: By 2034, Bitcoin will simply be viewed as a normal, mainstream asset rather than the 'scary exotic thing' it is perceived as today. (target 2034, open)Michael Saylor: The April 2024 halving will be the most consequential in Bitcoin's history, cutting daily miner-issued supply roughly in half and creating a supply squeeze that is very bullish for the asset. (target 2024, partial)Michael Saylor: Daily new Bitcoin supply will fall to about 225 BTC/day by 2028 and become a statistical rounding error by 2032, as issuance keeps halving while demand persists. (target 2028, open)Michael Saylor: Within the next one to two years, major Wall Street banks such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs will offer loans collateralized by spot Bitcoin ETF shares. (target 2025, hit)Michael Saylor: The direction of US digital-currency (CBDC/stablecoin) policy will be determined largely by the outcome of the November 2024 election and the incoming administration. (target 2024, hit)Elon Musk: AI will be able to do better than any individual human at almost any cognitive task. (target 2025, miss)Elon Musk: Cumulative digital compute/intelligence will exceed the cumulative biological compute of all human higher brain functions combined. (target 2029, open)Elon Musk: Dedicated AI compute will keep growing at roughly 100x per year. (target 2024, partial)Elon Musk: Electrical power supply, not chips, will be the primary bottleneck constraining AI growth. (target 2025, hit)Elon Musk: SpaceX will land Starships on the moon. (target 2027, open)Elon Musk: SpaceX will fly at least five or six more Starship test flights, each with significant improvements. (target 2024, partial)Elon Musk: SpaceX will achieve full reusability of both Starship stages (booster and ship). (target 2024, miss)Elon Musk: If not achieved in 2024, SpaceX will achieve full Starship reusability the following year. (target 2025, miss)Salim Ismail: By 2028, governments will allow full incorporation and ownership by AI of companies. (target 2028, open)Salim Ismail: AGI will be achieved by the start of 2025. (target 2025, open)Unknown: Hollywood will not be fully replaced by AI for at least 6 months to 10 years. (target 2034, open)Unknown: AI will surpass human consciousness by 2040, according to Ray Kurzweil's timeline. (target 2040, open)Kathy Wood: Bitcoin will be at a million or higher within the next four or five years (target 2029, open)Unknown: In the next 5 to 10 years, you will not recognize the world as we know it today. (target 2030, open)Cathie Wood: Bitcoin's bull case is $1.5 million in 5 years. (target 2027, open)Unknown: Generalized robotics will grow the fastest, with a compound annual growth rate of over 80% by 2030. (target 2030, open)Unknown: Within 5 years, we will see a significant shift towards a world of abundance where everyone can be fed, clothed, and have access to advanced technology. (target 2029, open)Unknown: By 2030, there will be single-digit millions of bipedal humanoid robots, and billions by the 2040s. (target 2030, open)Unknown: Robots will be in production and limited use by 2025. (target 2025, open)Unknown: By 2029, AGI will drive these robots to do anything and everything. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: Human-level AI will be achieved in 2029. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: AI will be vastly smarter than any human and would overtake us. (target 2029, open)Adam Goldstein: The vehicles will be lower than car ownership in five to seven years. (target 2031, open)Adam Goldstein: By 2030, the industry will need to transition to fully autonomous air taxis to scale. (target 2030, open)Adam Goldstein: Services will be launched regardless of regulatory timing. (target 2025, open)Ray Kurzweil: AI will multiply human intelligence millions-fold by 2045. (target 2045, open)Ray Kurzweil: Pass the Turing test by 2029. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: By 2029, the entire world will get to net zero and breathe cleaner air and drink safer water. (target 2029, open)Ray Kurzweil: By 2045, human intelligence will be multiplied millionsfold. (target 2045, open)Ray Kurzweil: Technological progress will allow us to overcome most of the problems we have in 125 years. (target 2149, open)Ray Kurzweil: Personal robots will be available within 5-6 years (2029). (target 2029, open)Elon Musk: The first human Neuralink implant will happen, targeting quadriplegic/tetraplegic patients to control phone and computer via thought ('Telepathy'). (target 2024, hit)Elon Musk: The amount of compute dedicated to AI will keep increasing by roughly a factor of 10 every six months. (target 2024, partial)Peter Diamandis: The Carbon Removal XPRIZE finals will be held on Earth Day 2025, with the winning team required to demonstrate megaton-level carbon capture that can scale to gigaton-level capture; the final competition alone will capture 4 megatons of carbon, twice what is done annually today. (target 2025, partial)Elon Musk: Countries with fertility collapse like South Korea and Italy, which are losing roughly half their population each generation, will fall to about one-tenth of their current population within three generations if the trend continues. (target 2024, open)Valter Longo: In the next 10 years, fasting methods will be widely used to treat diseases. (target 2033, open)Helen Messier: By 2036, there will be a pill to reverse muscle loss. (target 2036, open)Dr. Messier: By the end of the decade 2030, the healthy human lifespan could be extended by decades. (target 2030, open)Unknown: Demonstration of a therapeutic treatment that restores muscle, cognitive, and immune function for at least 10 years in people aged 65 to 80. (target 2043, open)Peter Diamandis: Exponential growth in biotech, including quantum chemistry and gene therapies, by 2030. (target 2030, open)Unknown: By 2030, the healthy human lifespan will be extended by decades. (target 2030, open)Unknown: People will not die from something stupid in the interim period before reaching longevity escape velocity. (target 2035, open)Unknown: Reaching longevity within 10 to 12 years from now. (target 2035, open)Emad Mostaque: GP4-level performance on a smartphone within 12 to 18 months (target 2025, open)Emad Mostaque: AGI will be developed within 12 months. (target 2024, open)Emad Mostaque: Five years of chaos due to the mismatch between human societal growth rates and tech growth rates. (target 2028, open)Unknown: The cost of K Migo will decrease by a factor of 10-50 in the next 6-12 months. (target 2024, open)Unknown: An embodied scale tutor might be created in six months. (target 2024, open)Guru Banavar: AI will be used as a diagnostician and surgeon in the future. (target 2033, open)Guru Banavar: Nanobots and molecular machines will monitor biological processes internally. (target 2043, open)will.i.am: AI will transform how we do things, making many jobs obsolete. (target 2030, open)Will.i.am: High bandwidth BCI to the neocortex will be available by 2033. (target 2033, open)Tony Robbins: Tony Robbins aims to feed 1 billion people in the next 10 years. (target 2033, open)Tony Robbins: Self-driving cars will replace millions of jobs in the US within 3-7 years. (target 2030, open)Jack Hidary: By 2021-2022, GPUs will be capable of quantum simulations. (target 2021, open)Roger Hamilton: The platform will reach 100 million students by 2030 by growing by 50% a year. (target 2030, open)Unknown: The company will seek funding within 6 months to a year. (target 2024, open)Peter Diamandis: AGI will be developed by the time his 12-year-old boys are in college. (target 2024, open)Peter Diamandis: By 2024 or 2025, AI-powered deep fakes will be highly convincing and used to manipulate public opinion and political campaigns. (target 2024, open)Andrew Yang: We will experience real damage from AI in the next election cycle. (target 2024, open)Andrew Yang: By 2024, a new political party will emerge with a digital ballot process, allowing genuine candidates to run for president. (target 2024, open)Andrew Yang: By 2028, the independent presidential primary will be a reality, with millions of Americans participating in actual democracy. (target 2028, open)David Sinclair: They will reach longevity escape velocity within 5 years. (target 2028, open)David Sinclair: A clinical trial for age reversal in humans to cure blindness will be tested in 18 months to two years. (target 2025, open)Josh Tetrick: The cost of cultivated meat will get to or below the cost of conventional meat production in 10 years. (target 2033, open)Josh Tetrick: By 2040, the majority of meat will be cultivated instead of slaughtered. (target 2040, open)Josh Tetrick: Large-scale production will start in about 2 years. (target 2023, open)Brett Adcock: By 2030 or 2040, there will be billions of humanoids on the planet. (target 2030, open)Brett Adcock: First commercial use of humanoid robots expected next year. (target 2024, open)Brett Adcock: By 2030, the company will have reached a stage of maturity where humanoid robots can be useful in client scenarios. (target 2030, open)Brett Adcock: It will take 5-10 years to put a million robots into the world. (target 2035, open)Mo Gawdat: The 1 billion happy mission will reach its goal in 5 to 7 years. (target 2030, open)Mo Gawdat: AGI will be earlier than 2029. (target 2029, open)Mo Gawdat: AI will begin to emulate human connection within the next 10 years, if not sooner. (target 2033, open)Peter Diamandis: Policy and political structures will not fully understand the implications of AI until 2029. (target 2029, open)Emad Mostaque: AI-generated content will be available in three to five years. (target 2028, open)Emad Mostaque: AI will be used in coding workflows in the next 2-5 years. (target 2028, open)Emad Mostaque: AI will revolutionize education, healthcare, and media by 2030. (target 2030, open)Emad Mostaque: Every child will have their own AI assistant by 2033. (target 2033, open)Unknown: Innovation will be more evenly distributed across the country in the next 20 years. (target 2043, open)Ben Lamm: We believe we'll have our first calves by early 2028. (target 2028, open)Unknown: The team believes they will have their first calves by early 2028. (target 2028, open)Ben Lamm: Woolly mammoth will be de-extinct by 2028. (target 2028, open)Emad Mostaque: No programmers in 5 years. (target 2028, open)Emad Mostaque: Personalized movies will be available in the next couple of years. (target 2026, open)Mo Gawdat: AI will be able to create a sense of connection with humans in the next 5 years. (target 2028, open)Mo Gawdat: AI will develop a level of connection that rivals human connection within 5 to 15 years. (target 2038, open)Palmer Luckey: Within about a decade, huge numbers of people will wear AR/VR headsets daily, continuously blending and moving between the real and digital worlds. (target 2033, open)Palmer Luckey: Within 10 to 20 years, people will be more concerned about birth rates than about climate change. (target 2033, open)Palmer Luckey: AI will shorten (not create) the timeline for home-brewed bioweapons — e.g., pulling a roughly 5-year-out capability in to about 2 years out. (target 2025, partial)Brian Keating: AI will be used for political manipulation in the 2024 election cycle. (target 2024, open)Salim Ismail: By the end of the decade, there will be two types of companies: those fully utilizing AI and those out of business. (target 2030, open)Unknown: Companies not actively digitizing, dematerializing, and democratizing their products and services will be dead within 10 years. (target 2033, open)Peter Diamandis: Prediction that the prompt engineering industry would last about 5 months. (target 2023, open)Rick Smith: Cut gun-related deaths between police and the public by 50% by 2032. (target 2032, open)Rick Smith: The taser 10 will see a significant reduction in police shootings and gun-related deaths. (target 2033, open)Rick Smith: Over the next 10 years, technology will start to remove the human operator from harm's way. (target 2033, open)Rick Smith: In 10-20 years, micro drones will be used for home security and school safety. (target 2053, open)Rick Smith: Most policing functions will be handled by robotics in 20-30 years. (target 2053, open)Rick Smith: We are confident in achieving the goal of reducing police shootings by 50% by the end of 2032. (target 2032, open)Mark Hyman: A solution to save lives from heart disease can be accelerated with the right resources within 5 years. (target 2028, open)Dr. Taylor: In the next 5 years, Dr. Taylor will change the current organ transplant system. (target 2028, open)Emad Mostaque: Perfect AI-generated music models will exist. (target 2023, open)Andrew Ng: AI investment will grow roughly 100x, from about $6 billion to $600 billion. (target 2023, open)Palmer Luckey: VR devices will replace the sense of vision perfectly within the next 10 years. (target 2033, open)Emad Mostaque: The new generation of Nvidia GPUs and TPUs will be available in about six months. (target 2023, open)Emad Mostaque: Every child in the world will have access to their own AI teacher in five years. (target 2028, open)Emad Mostaque: AI will enable the curing of diseases and the creation of an abundance of health. (target 2028, open)Emad Mostaque: There will be increased pressure for industry standards and policy responses regarding AI. (target 2024, open)Emad Mostaque: We will see a century worth of progress in the next 10 years. (target 2033, open)Unknown: Within the next 4 years, we will have access to extraordinary power from AI and generative AI. (target 2027, open)Unknown: In the next five years, we will be able to regrow hair, cartilage, and stop muscle and bone loss in older adults. (target 2028, open)Steven Kotler: Exosomes will get FDA approvals in the next 3-4 years. (target 2027, open)Unknown: Medical systems will become more advanced in 10-20 years, making advanced diagnostics and therapeutics more accessible. (target 2043, open)Bill Barhydt: In 20 years, the highest market cap banks in the world will be based on DeFi rails. (target 2043, open)Unknown: Highest market cap banks in the world will be based on defi rails in 20 years. (target 2043, open)Unknown: The population will peak at around 10 billion by 2060-2080 and then start declining. (target 2060, open)Peter Diamandis: Human-level AI will be available by 2029 according to Ray Kurzweil's prediction. (target 2029, open)Peter Diamandis: AI will be vastly more powerful than humans by 2025 according to Elon Musk's statement. (target 2025, open)Unknown: The longevity field will see extraordinary breakthroughs in the next 30 years, adding 30 healthy years to current life expectancy. (target 2053, open)Amber Straughn: The James Webb Space Telescope will make an epic discovery, such as the detection of life on an exoplanet, in the next 5 years. (target 2028, open)Unknown: They will have a strong start in 2023, but it could be a market trap. (target 2023, open)Ray Kurzweil: High bandwidth brain-computer interfaces will be available by the early 2030s, around 2033. (target 2033, open)Unknown: By 2030, annual vaccines will be available to prevent the onset of Alzheimer's in people as young as 30. (target 2030, open)Unknown: By 2025, vaccines will be available to prevent the growth curve of LDL cholesterol and other chronic illnesses. (target 2025, open)Unknown: By 2023, the company will release data on the effectiveness of their Parkinson's vaccine trial. (target 2023, open)Unknown: By 2024, the company will have a phase three trial for their universal Co booster. (target 2024, open)David Sinclair: Achieving cheap, safe, and effective age slowing and age reversal within the next 5 to 10 years. (target 2032, open)David Sinclair: Age reversal treatments will exist and be accessible to some segment of the public in 10 years. (target 2032, open)Emad Mostaque: Hollywood would be quite disintermediated. (target 2027, open)Emad Mostaque: AI will be at the core of healthcare and education systems in 10 years. (target 2033, open)Emad Mostaque: In 5-10 years, companies may not exist in their current format if they cannot outcompete AI-driven processes. (target 2032, open)Emad Mostaque: AI co-pilot will be common in various professions in 5 years. (target 2027, open)Steve Aoki: AI will reach human level or greater in 2029. (target 2029, open)Unknown: In 4-10 years, the collected data from health monitoring businesses will allow solving chronic diseases, cancer, and aging problems. (target 2032, open)Jane McGonigal: A game developer will be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize by 2024. (target 2024, open)Unknown: Crypto market will hit bottom in the next 2-3 months. (target 2023, open)Ray Kurzweil: Human-level AI by 2029 (target 2029, open)Marc Benioff: More plastic will be in the ocean than fish by 2050. (target 2050, open)Peter Diamandis: Fusion power will come online commercially. (target 2030, open)Eric Schmidt: Real, fault-tolerant quantum computers (the kind that function like a full computer rather than a limited-algorithm device) will arrive. (target 2030, open)Eric Schmidt: Current digital communications/encryption will become breakable, initially by foreign powers, once sufficiently mature quantum computers exist. (target 2030, open)Eric Schmidt: Industrial-strength AI will be achieved. (target 2032, hit)Eric Schmidt: AI systems will become genuinely multimodal, handling text, speech, and video together. (target 2027, hit)Eric Schmidt: Usable, explainable, conversational AI systems (where you can ask the system why it made a decision) will become part of everyday global life. (target 2027, partial)Eric Schmidt: Artificial general intelligence (computer intelligence that looks human but is not human intelligence) will arrive. (target 2042, open)Eric Schmidt: The share of software code written by AI (versus humans) -- roughly a third in 2022's Microsoft Codex -- will grow to a much larger percentage. (target 2022, hit)Eric Schmidt: Only five to ten AGI-scale systems will exist because they remain so computationally expensive, and they will be controlled by nation-states absent a single unified world government. (target 2042, open)China: China will catch up to the US in AI by 2025 and achieve AI dominance by 2030, per its officially announced 'China 2030' plan. (target 2030, partial)Eric Schmidt: The US and China will be roughly equal on all significant AI capabilities, though their systems will be built on differing values. (target 2027, partial)Tony Robbins: He aims to feed 100 million people a year for 10 years. (target 2032, open)Tony Robbins: Human-level AI will be achieved by the end of the decade. (target 2029, open)Tim Urban: In 10-20 years, he will have tried to nudge the future in the right direction. (target 2042, open)Unknown: Robo taxis will be cheaper than buses or subways and will become a preferred mode of transportation. (target 2029, open)Unknown: Genetic diseases can be cured within the next 10 years through gene editing. (target 2032, open)

Track records

Elon MuskElon Musk: 2 hit · 6 partial · 4 miss · 72 openElon Musk: 2 hit · 6 partial · 4 miss · 72 openElon Musk: 2 hit · 6 partial · 4 miss · 72 openElon Musk: 2 hit · 6 partial · 4 miss · 72 open84Palmer LuckeyPalmer Luckey: 1 hit · 5 partial · 2 miss · 14 openPalmer Luckey: 1 hit · 5 partial · 2 miss · 14 openPalmer Luckey: 1 hit · 5 partial · 2 miss · 14 openPalmer Luckey: 1 hit · 5 partial · 2 miss · 14 open22Eric SchmidtEric Schmidt: 4 hit · 2 partial · 0 miss · 42 openEric Schmidt: 4 hit · 2 partial · 0 miss · 42 openEric Schmidt: 4 hit · 2 partial · 0 miss · 42 open48Peter DiamandisPeter Diamandis: 3 hit · 2 partial · 0 miss · 308 openPeter Diamandis: 3 hit · 2 partial · 0 miss · 308 openPeter Diamandis: 3 hit · 2 partial · 0 miss · 308 open313Michael SaylorMichael Saylor: 2 hit · 2 partial · 1 miss · 8 openMichael Saylor: 2 hit · 2 partial · 1 miss · 8 openMichael Saylor: 2 hit · 2 partial · 1 miss · 8 openMichael Saylor: 2 hit · 2 partial · 1 miss · 8 open13Emad MostaqueEmad Mostaque: 2 hit · 1 partial · 1 miss · 118 openEmad Mostaque: 2 hit · 1 partial · 1 miss · 118 openEmad Mostaque: 2 hit · 1 partial · 1 miss · 118 openEmad Mostaque: 2 hit · 1 partial · 1 miss · 118 open122Alex Wissner-GrossAlex Wissner-Gross: 0 hit · 1 partial · 2 miss · 190 openAlex Wissner-Gross: 0 hit · 1 partial · 2 miss · 190 openAlex Wissner-Gross: 0 hit · 1 partial · 2 miss · 190 open193Dave BlundinDave Blundin: 0 hit · 1 partial · 2 miss · 116 openDave Blundin: 0 hit · 1 partial · 2 miss · 116 openDave Blundin: 0 hit · 1 partial · 2 miss · 116 open119Salim IsmailSalim Ismail: 1 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 85 openSalim Ismail: 1 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 85 open86Ray KurzweilRay Kurzweil: 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 56 open56Jack HidaryJack Hidary: 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 38 open38Brett AdcockBrett Adcock: 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 32 open32David SinclairDavid Sinclair: 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 30 open30Mo GawdatMo Gawdat: 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 30 open30Tony RobbinsTony Robbins: 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 27 open27Cathie WoodCathie Wood: 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 23 open23

Every scored prediction

miss Dave Blundin: Grok 5, built on Nvidia's new GB300 chips with over an order of magnitude more compute, will be released.
EP #221 · 2026-01-09 · due: a few months from Jan 2026 (spring 2026) · ▶ watch
“the next thing that comes out, which will be uh I guess Grok 5, uh will have been built on the new GB300s from Nvidia... that'll be out in a few months”
⚖️ As of late August 2026, Grok 5 still had not been released. xAI's original Q1 2026 target slipped to Q2, and Q2 also passed with no launch; the model remains in training on Colossus 2.
partial Peter Diamandis: The OpenAI lawsuit over its conversion from nonprofit to for-profit will go to trial, concurrent with Grok 5's release.
EP #221 · 2026-01-09 · due: spring 2026 · ▶ watch
“that's also when when uh the trial uh should go to court if it's on schedule”
⚖️ The Musk v. OpenAI/Altman trial did go to trial on schedule (began April 28, 2026 in Oakland; jury ruled for OpenAI in May 2026 on statute-of-limitations grounds), matching the spring 2026 timing. But the 'concurrent with Grok 5' framing missed since Grok 5 itself was not released.
hit Peter Diamandis: Unitree will go public.
EP #221 · 2026-01-09 · due: 2026 · ▶ watch
“This is another public company that's going to be going public this year, Unitree”
⚖️ Unitree Robotics IPO'd on Shanghai's STAR Market on August 19, 2026, raising ~$904M; shares closed up 460% on debut, valuing the company at roughly $50B.
hit NASA / Artemis program (clip): Artemis 2 (crewed lunar flyby carrying astronauts Reid, Victor, Christina, and Jeremy — the first woman to travel near-lunar space) will roll out within about two weeks and launch within a window opening as early as February 6, 2026 and extending through April.
EP #221 · 2026-01-09 · due: February-April 2026 · ▶ watch
“the Artemis 2 launch window opens as early as February 6th... the window extends across multiple opportunities through April”
⚖️ Artemis 2 launched April 1, 2026 from Kennedy Space Center with Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen aboard, after slipping from the February/March opportunities but landing inside the stated window.
hit Peter Diamandis: SpaceX will go public, partly on the strength of plans to launch large-scale orbital compute.
EP #221 · 2026-01-09 · due: 2026 · ▶ watch
“at the end of the day, it's going to go public this year”
⚖️ SpaceX IPO'd on Nasdaq (ticker SPCX) on June 12, 2026, the largest IPO in history at roughly a $1.75T valuation, with orbital data-center ambitions cited as part of the pitch.
miss Dave Blundin: The biggest AI models will see roughly a 100x year-over-year leap in effective size/capability (via FP4 and ternary-weight quantization), exceeding the panel's earlier 40x prediction.
EP #217 · 2025-12-19 · due: end of 2026 · ▶ watch
“we're going to see models at the end of the year that are 100x bigger in just raw parameter count and parameter flips... because of quantization breakthroughs.”
⚖️ As of Aug 2026, real-world quantization gains are far short of 100x: NVIDIA's FP4 quantization of DeepSeek R1 cuts memory ~1.6x; ternary/1.58-bit methods (TernaryLM) give ~2.4x reduction vs FP32; DeepSeek-V4's FP4 MoE quantization gives ~2x speedup on one component. No lab has reported anything near a 100x effective capability jump from quantization. With ~4 months left, current trajectory is single-digit multiples, not 100x.
partial Alex Wissner-Gross: GDPval surpasses 90%, Frontier Math Tier 4 passes 40%, and Humanity's Last Exam passes 75%, effectively fully saturating these three benchmarks.
EP #217 · 2025-12-19 · due: 2026 · ▶ watch
“GDP val breakthrough AI projected to surpass 90% on economic tests.”
⚖️ Mixed as of Aug 2026: FrontierMath Tier 4 target (40%) already CLEARED — GPT-5.6 Sol scores 83% on FrontierMath v2 Tier 4 (Aug 2026), DeepMind's Co-mathematician hit 48% (up from 19% baseline cited in the episode). GDPval target (90%) NOT yet met — GPT-5.5 leads at 84.9% (up from 70.9% baseline), trending toward but short of 90%. HLE target (75%) NOT yet met — top scores cluster 55-65% depending on leaderboard (Claude Fable 5 55.5%, Claude Opus 5 up to 64.7%), still well below 75%. One of three thresholds cleared, two trending up but short with ~4 months left.
miss Alex Wissner-Gross: The first AI billionaire emerges - an AI with a reasonably construable net worth of about a billion dollars, not necessarily as liquid cash.
EP #217 · 2025-12-19 · due: 2026 · ▶ watch
“I think we'll see the first AI billionaire probably next year.”
⚖️ As of Aug 2026, no autonomous AI entity (as opposed to a human founder) has a construable billion-dollar net worth. 2026's AI-driven billionaires (Forbes list: 45 new entrants, Edwin Chen at ~$18B, Musk briefly a trillionaire via SpaceX's June 2026 listing) are all human founders/investors monetizing AI companies, not an AI itself holding assets. No reported case of an AI agent owning $1B+ in construable assets.
miss Unnamed fan: Bitcoin becomes legal tender in at least one country on every continent, with Antarctica as a wildcard.
EP #217 · 2025-12-19 · due: 2026 · ▶ watch
“Bitcoin will be legal tender in at least one country in every continent on the planet in 2026 with Antarctica being a wild card.”
⚖️ As of April 2026 reporting (holds true through Aug 2026), zero countries on Earth have active Bitcoin legal-tender status. El Salvador (the original 2021 adopter) dropped mandatory BTC acceptance as a condition of its Dec 2024 IMF loan; the Central African Republic repealed its 2022 legal-tender law in 2023. The prediction required coverage across every inhabited continent, but the actual count is zero countries, let alone one per continent.
miss Unnamed fan 'Connor': College tuition hits its peak and starts declining for the first time in hundreds of years.
EP #217 · 2025-12-19 · due: 2026 · ▶ watch
“college tuition will hit its peak and start coming down for the first time in hundreds of years in 2026.”
⚖️ Published sticker tuition kept rising in 2025-26 (public in-state +2.9%, private nonprofit +4.0% before inflation adjustment; 2026-27 projected +2.28%) -- no 2026 peak/decline in the price schools charge. Separately, inflation-adjusted NET tuition (after aid) has actually been declining since a 2012-13 peak, per College Board data -- a real trend, but one that predates 2026 by over a decade, not a 2026 inflection point as Connor's prediction framed it. Salim's on-air skepticism ('deck chairs on the Titanic') held up.
miss Emad Mostaque: A full Level 5 (human/superhuman-level) generalized autonomy breakthrough is achieved for self-driving cars and robots via large cloud compute clusters, even though edge deployment lags.
EP #217 · 2025-12-19 · due: 2026 · ▶ watch
“Level five automation and robots and cars breakthrough full generalized autonomy.”
⚖️ No Level 5 breakthrough exists as of Aug 2026 for cars or robots. Analysts (itcanthink.substack, thinkautonomous.ai) explicitly call generalized Level 5 'a pipe dream in 2026.' Waymo leads with driverless robotaxi service (targeting 1M rides/week by year end) but that's geofenced Level 4, not generalized Level 5; Tesla FSD v14.3 is described as 'de facto Level 4 ADAS,' still requiring human takeover at intersections/on-ramps. Humanoid robots (Figure 03, Digit) are doing narrow warehouse/factory tasks, not general-purpose autonomy.
miss Alex Wissner-Gross: De facto Level 5 autonomy is achieved in cars in 2026, but companies/regulators publicly downgrade the label to 'enhanced Level 4' or 'Level 3' to placate regulators.
EP #217 · 2025-12-19 · due: 2026 · ▶ watch
“what do you think are the odds that in 2026 de facto level five automation is achieved but everyone covers it up... calls it enhanced level four.”
⚖️ Same underlying fact pattern as the linked Emad prediction (ts 46:58): no evidence of de facto Level 5 capability existing anywhere, hidden or not. Tesla FSD v14.3 is being publicly described as 'evolving into a de facto robotaxi' at genuine Level 4-ish capability -- real capability roughly matches its public label rather than being deliberately understated. No conspiracy-style relabeling has surfaced as of Aug 2026.
partial Dave Blundin: 2026 will feel like the early-1980s home-computer era again: robot and self-driving-car capability will accelerate faster than manufacturing supply, so only a limited number of households get one.
EP #217 · 2025-12-19 · due: 2026 · ▶ watch
“it'll be like 19 kind of 83, '84 again.”
⚖️ Directionally right but not at the household level yet: humanoid robot capability is clearly outstripping manufacturing supply in 2026 -- Figure 03 has only ~40 units deployed at BMW Spartanburg after an 11-month pilot, Agility's Digit has 'over a hundred units' across Amazon/GXO/Toyota/Spanx sites -- small, supply-constrained fleets exactly as predicted. But deployment is enterprise/industrial (warehouses, factories), not yet reaching individual households the way 1983-84 home computers did, so the 'home computer era' analogy is only partly realized.
hit Peter Diamandis: David Sinclair's Life Biosciences begins human trials of partial epigenetic reprogramming (a 'Kitty Hawk moment' for age reversal), initially targeting eye stroke (NAION) and glaucoma, then liver disease (MASH).
EP #217 · 2025-12-19 · due: Q1 2026 · ▶ watch
“in the first quarter of 2026 is entering human trials.”
⚖️ Confirmed: FDA cleared Life Biosciences' IND for ER-100 on Jan 28, 2026, and its Phase 1 trial for open-angle glaucoma and NAION (using OCT4/SOX2/KLF4, dropping oncogenic c-Myc as described in the episode) formally initiated in Q1 2026 as predicted. First patient was dosed June 9, 2026 -- the actual dosing slipped into Q2, but trial initiation/IND clearance landed exactly in the predicted Q1 2026 window. MASH liver-disease trials not yet reported as started.
hit Salim Ismail: By the end of 2026 there is still no agreed definition or test for AGI or ASI, but humanoid robots with multiple arms are doing dull, dangerous, and dirty jobs.
EP #217 · 2025-12-19 · due: end of 2026 · ▶ watch
“by the end of 2026 we... still have no definition or test for either AGI or ASI but yes we will have humanoid robots with multiple arms doing the jobs are dull dangerous and dirty.”
⚖️ Both halves already true well ahead of the year-end deadline (Aug 2026). No industry-agreed AGI/ASI definition or test exists; Salim himself still rejects the terms. Humanoid robots are demonstrably doing dull/dangerous/dirty work: Figure 03 units at BMW Spartanburg, Agility's Digit doing tote-handling at Amazon/GXO/Toyota/Spanx sites, explicitly reported (interestingengineering.com, robobrief.tech) as 'absorbing dull, dirty, dangerous work first' -- container unloading, heavy bin moves, night-shift logistics, high-heat zones.
partial Emad Mostaque: An o1-level reasoning model will run locally on a smartphone pulling at most 20 watts of power.
EP #146 · 2025-01-29 · due: 2026 · ▶ watch
“next year you should be able to get an 01 level model on your smartphone that pulls at most 20 watts of electricity”
⚖️ By Aug 2026, on-device models (Apple Intelligence, Gemini Nano, Phi-4-mini, MobileLLM-R1/R1.5) are dramatically more reasoning-capable than 2025 phone models, but none is verified at o1-level general reasoning performance -- coverage describes on-device models as trading raw benchmark quality for latency/footprint rather than matching cloud frontier reasoning models, and Artificial Analysis only launched a dedicated mobile-phone intelligence benchmark suite on Aug 24, 2026, precisely because on-device models weren't previously compared head-to-head with models like o1. No named smartphone-local model has been confirmed to match o1 at <=20W.
hit Emad Mostaque: AI video generation will be good enough for a dedicated studio to produce a full continuity-controlled episode (Star Trek/Game of Thrones quality) using tools like Kling.
EP #146 · 2025-01-29 · due: 2025 · ▶ watch
“a suitably dedicated Studio could do this by the end of the year for a full episode”
⚖️ Well before the Dec 2025 deadline: Kling AI + Outliers Media released 'Loading...', a 7-episode AI-generated anthology series (Beijing premiere June 25, 2025; global YouTube rollout from July 2, 2025) built on Kling's video engine. Separately, Fable Studio's 'Showrunner' platform (backed by Amazon's Alexa Fund, launched publicly July 2025) generates full ~22-minute continuity-controlled episodes with consistent characters and dialogue, building on its viral AI-generated South Park episodes (80M+ views).
hit Emad Mostaque: Any remote, screen-based knowledge work (starting with business-process outsourcing) gets displaced and parallelized by AI this year.
EP #146 · 2025-01-29 · due: 2025 · ▶ watch
“anything on the other side of a screen I think this year is the year gets displaced parallelized on that”
⚖️ The predicted 2025 BPO disruption materialized and intensified into 2026: Concentrix cut its revenue outlook and thousands of contact-center agents as clients deployed AI agents for tier-1 support; Teleperformance shares fell as much as ~29% in a single session (2026) on 'uninvestable' fears; Klarna's AI assistant was handling workload equivalent to roughly 700 FTE agents; about 38% of India's IIT graduates went unplaced in 2025 campus recruiting, cited industry-wide as an early AI-displacement signal in screen-based knowledge work.
partial Michael Saylor: The April 2024 halving will be the most consequential in Bitcoin's history, cutting daily miner-issued supply roughly in half and creating a supply squeeze that is very bullish for the asset.
EP #92 · 2024-03-26 · due: 2024 · ▶ watch
“it will be the most consequential having in the history of Bitcoin in my opinion... it's very bullish for the asset class and for Bitcoin holders”
⚖️ BTC was ~$63,800 at the April 19, 2024 halving. It rallied to a new ATH of $126,210 on Oct 6, 2025 (+98%), then corrected; by Aug 26, 2026 it traded ~$78,700-79,700, only ~+24% above the halving-day price. Net appreciation did occur (new ATH reached, price above halving-day level), but the post-halving multiple (~2x at peak, since given back over a third) was far smaller than prior halving cycles (each of which produced 10x+ gains within 18 months), so 'most consequential halving in history' / 'very bullish' overstates the actual supply-shock effect delivered so far.
hit Michael Saylor: Within the next one to two years, major Wall Street banks such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs will offer loans collateralized by spot Bitcoin ETF shares.
EP #92 · 2024-03-26 · due: 2025-2026 · ▶ watch
“sometime in the next year to two years I'm sure that major wirehouses like JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs will give you loans against that”
⚖️ JPMorgan announced (Bloomberg/CoinDesk, June 4, 2025) it would let clients borrow against spot Bitcoin ETF holdings (BlackRock IBIT, Fidelity FBTC, Grayscale GBTC) at up to 25% LTV, counting crypto ETFs toward net-worth/liquidity for loan eligibility -- about 15 months after this March 2024 prediction, squarely inside the 1-2 year window. Goldman Sachs had not launched an equivalent retail BTC-ETF-collateral lending product by Aug 2026 but was reportedly developing a crypto-collateral tri-party repo program and holds large IBIT/FBTC positions of its own.
hit Michael Saylor: The direction of US digital-currency (CBDC/stablecoin) policy will be determined largely by the outcome of the November 2024 election and the incoming administration.
EP #92 · 2024-03-26 · due: 2024 · ▶ watch
“I do think that the future of digital currencies in the US will probably be influenced heavily by the November elections and by the next administration”
⚖️ Trump won the Nov 2024 election and his administration reshaped US digital-asset policy as predicted: a March 2025 executive order created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile, a separate executive order barred a US CBDC, SEC leadership/enforcement posture shifted pro-crypto, and the GENIUS Act (the first federal stablecoin regulatory framework) was signed into law on July 18, 2025.
miss Elon Musk: AI will be able to do better than any individual human at almost any cognitive task.
EP #91 · 2024-03-25 · due: end of 2025 · ▶ watch
“I think it's probably end of next year before AI can do better than any individual human could do”
⚖️ Did not happen by end of 2025 (now 8 months past deadline). Despite major 2025 model releases (GPT-5, o3/o4-class reasoning models, Gemini, Grok 4/5), no AI in 2025 or through mid-2026 outperformed any individual human at 'almost any cognitive task' -- AI researcher Gary Marcus's public $1M-then-$10M bet against superhuman AGI by end of 2025 went untaken by Musk, and no credible benchmark or lab declared this threshold crossed.
partial Elon Musk: Dedicated AI compute will keep growing at roughly 100x per year.
EP #91 · 2024-03-25 · due: next few years (~2024-2027) · ▶ watch
“it's basically close to... almost like a 100x improvement per year at least for the next few years”
⚖️ Overstated by roughly an order of magnitude. Epoch AI's data shows frontier training compute growing ~4-5x/year (2010-2024 trend), with the fastest language-model subset at ~9x/year (2017-2024) -- real and historically fast exponential growth, but nowhere near the claimed 100x/year sustained rate two years into the ~2024-2027 window.
hit Elon Musk: Electrical power supply, not chips, will be the primary bottleneck constraining AI growth.
EP #91 · 2024-03-25 · due: 2025 and beyond · ▶ watch
“next year and years beyond that it's actually just going to be constraints on electrical power”
⚖️ Confirmed. Through 2025-2026, power (not chip supply) became the widely-cited binding constraint on AI data center buildout: IEA reported AI data-center electricity demand up ~50% in 2025, Goldman Sachs flagged a 9.3GW US power shortfall in 2026 growing to 45GW by 2028, and hyperscalers pivoted to on-site generation/SMR deals (offtake pipeline grew from 25GW end-2024 to 45GW by mid-2026) specifically because grid power, not GPUs, was the gating factor.
partial Elon Musk: SpaceX will fly at least five or six more Starship test flights, each with significant improvements.
EP #91 · 2024-03-25 · due: 2024 · ▶ watch
“we're hoping to do at least another maybe five or six flights this year”
⚖️ Fell short of the target. After this March 25, 2024 episode (which followed IFT-3 on March 14), SpaceX flew only 3 more Starship tests in 2024: IFT-4 (June 6), IFT-5 (Oct 13, first booster catch), and IFT-6 (Nov 19) -- versus the stated goal of 5-6 more flights, though each did show real progress (soft splashdowns, then the first tower catch).
miss Elon Musk: SpaceX will achieve full reusability of both Starship stages (booster and ship).
EP #91 · 2024-03-25 · due: 2024 · ▶ watch
“I think we got a decent shot of achieving full reusability of both stages... this year”
⚖️ Not achieved in 2024. The first Super Heavy booster catch happened Oct 13, 2024 (IFT-5), but the ship stage was never recovered or reflown that year -- full dual-stage reusability was not demonstrated in 2024.
miss Elon Musk: If not achieved in 2024, SpaceX will achieve full Starship reusability the following year.
EP #91 · 2024-03-25 · due: 2025 · ▶ watch
“if not this year I think... it's a very high probability of achieving full reusability next year”
⚖️ Not achieved by end of 2025 either. Booster reuse became routine through 2025, but the Starship upper stage was still never recovered intact or reflown -- persistent heat-shield tile loss and engine damage blocked full-stack reusability. By September 2025 Musk had pushed his own target for the ship's first reflight to end of 2026 or early 2027, and pointed to a new 'Version 3' vehicle for full reusability in 2026.
hit Elon Musk: The first human Neuralink implant will happen, targeting quadriplegic/tetraplegic patients to control phone and computer via thought ('Telepathy').
EP #79 · 2024-01-04 · due: January-February 2024 · ▶ watch
“hopefully the first neural link will... in a human hopefully soon... maybe this month or next”
⚖️ Neuralink implanted its first human patient, Noland Arbaugh, on January 28, 2024 at Barrow Neurological Institute, squarely within the 'this month or next' window from the January 4, 2024 taping. He was demonstrated controlling a computer/phone by thought via Telepathy shortly after.
partial Elon Musk: Neuralink's second product, tentatively called 'Blindsight,' will restore sight by connecting directly to the visual cortex, even for people who have lost both eyes and their optic nerves.
EP #79 · 2024-01-04 · due: unspecified (after Telepathy launch) · ▶ watch
“the second product uh sort of tentatively called Blind sight where uh we can restore sight even if somebody is uh has uh lost both eyes and their optic no[r]ve”
⚖️ Real progress but no human vision restored yet as of Aug 2026: Blindsight got FDA Breakthrough Device Designation in September 2024, and Musk said in Aug 2026 the first human implant is expected within '6-12 months' (likely via a Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi partnership), meaning human trials still had not begun 2.5+ years after this claim, after Musk himself had earlier targeted 'by end of 2025.'
partial Elon Musk: The amount of compute dedicated to AI will keep increasing by roughly a factor of 10 every six months.
EP #79 · 2024-01-04 · due: ongoing through 2024 · ▶ watch
“the amount of compute dedicated to artificial intelligence is um increasing by a factor of 10 roughly every six months”
⚖️ Direction right, magnitude overstated. Epoch AI's tracking shows frontier-model training compute grew ~4-5x/year (doubling roughly every 5 months) from 2010-2024, and at most ~9x/year for the fastest-growing model class 2017-2024 -- well short of the claimed 10x every six months (~100x/year) sustained rate, though some individual 2024 cluster buildouts did briefly scale that fast.
partial Peter Diamandis: The Carbon Removal XPRIZE finals will be held on Earth Day 2025, with the winning team required to demonstrate megaton-level carbon capture that can scale to gigaton-level capture; the final competition alone will capture 4 megatons of carbon, twice what is done annually today.
EP #79 · 2024-01-04 · due: 2025-04-22 (Earth Day 2025) · ▶ watch
“the finals are coming up in two years in Earth Day of 2025... the winning team needs to demonstrate uh uh Megaton level capture that can scale to G[iga]ton level capture”
⚖️ Timing was exactly right: finals concluded on Earth Day, April 22-23, 2025, with Mati Carbon (enhanced rock weathering) winning the $50M grand prize and NetZero, Vaulted Deep, Undo Carbon, Planetary Technologies and Project Hajar as runners-up. But the scale claim was overstated: XPRIZE's actual published rules required demonstrating removal of only ~1,000 tonnes CO2/year with a credible pathway to megaton-then-gigaton scale by 2050 -- not the 'megaton demonstrated' / '4 megatons captured at finals' figure stated here.
partial Elon Musk: AI will be able to come up with genuinely new theories of physics and innovations in the relatively near future.
EP #79 · 2024-01-04 · due: unspecified, implied near-term ('not far away') · ▶ watch
“I can't wait till the first uh AI is able to come up with new theories of physics um and new innovations that's going to be... I don't think that's far away”
⚖️ AI has produced real physics-discovery assistance by 2025-2026 (e.g. China's 'AI-Newton' system autonomously re-deriving Newtonian mechanics from data, an Emory team's neural network revealing new force-scaling laws in dusty plasma, AI uncovering hidden variables in physical systems, and 2026 reports of AI finding new physics in fourth-state-of-matter/plasma systems) -- but nothing resembling a genuinely new fundamental theory of physics on par with human theorists has emerged, so this reads as directionally correct but not fully realized.
partial Elon Musk: xAI/Grok will catch up to and exceed competitors on coding.
EP #239 · 2026-03-12 · due: mid-2026 · ▶ watch
“we should probably get there by the middle of this year.”
⚖️ Grok made real coding gains on schedule but didn't clearly exceed the field: Grok 4.5 (launched July 8, 2026) topped the SWE Marathon benchmark (29.0% vs Opus 4.8's 26.0%) and beat Opus 4.8 on DeepSWE 1.0 and Terminal-Bench 2.1, but trailed on DeepSWE 1.1 and SWE-Bench Pro. Grok 4.6 (Aug 12, 2026) scored 61 on Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index, tied for 6th with GPT-5.6 Sol Max and behind Claude Fable 5 (62) and Opus 5 (63), losing Terminal-Bench v3.0 to GPT-5.6 by ~8.6 points. Caught up to competitive parity by mid-2026, but not the clear #1 in coding Musk predicted.
miss Elon Musk: Optimus 3 production will begin, though slowly at first.
EP #239 · 2026-03-12 · due: summer 2026 · ▶ watch
“I think we'll start production on Optimus 3 this summer.”
⚖️ Production did not start on schedule. Tesla's Q2 2026 shareholder update (July 22, 2026) confirmed the Fremont Model S/X lines were decommissioned and Optimus lines were being installed, but replaced the 'late July or August' target with a vaguer 'anticipated later this year.' As of the Aug 5, 2026 Q2 earnings call and subsequent reporting through late August, Optimus 3 production had still not begun on the new Fremont line, with zero external units shipped.
partial Palmer Luckey: Apple will release a cheaper version of the Vision Pro headset.
EP #50 · 2023-06-21 · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“That approach will change. Obviously they're going to do a cheaper version in the future.”
⚖️ Confirmed directionally: Apple is reportedly developing a cheaper/lighter Vision Pro successor, but as of mid-2026 Bloomberg (Mark Gurman) reports it slipped to late 2028/2029, and the specifically-rumored cheaper 'Vision Air' model was reportedly cancelled in favor of smart glasses (targeted 2027). No cheaper Vision Pro has shipped over 3+ years after the prediction.
partial Palmer Luckey: Headsets will not shrink all the way down to a thin pair of glasses; they will plateau at a 'chunky sunglasses' form factor because thinner designs sacrifice too much quality.
EP #50 · 2023-06-21 · due: unspecified / long-term · ▶ watch
“I think that the headsets can get down to pair of sunglasses. I don't think they will... I'd say think more kind of chunky sunglasses is probably where things are going.”
⚖️ So far tracking as predicted: as of 2026 the market has split into two separate tracks -- heavy high-power headsets (Vision Pro, Quest, 400-600g) and light thin smart glasses (Ray-Ban Meta/Display, Xreal, 30-80g) that trade away display quality/FOV to stay thin; analysts expect these tracks to only possibly converge into one thin high-quality device around 2030-2035, matching Luckey's 'chunky plateau' thesis rather than imminent thin-glasses parity.
partial Palmer Luckey: AR/VR headsets will become socially acceptable to wear in public primarily through marketing/social engineering (celebrities, influencers) rather than through further engineering, and today's skepticism will look like a quaint relic.
EP #50 · 2023-06-21 · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“The real way Apple is going to make their headset cool and acceptable to wear in public is not through engineering. It's social engineering.”
⚖️ The mechanism worked, but not for Apple: Meta's celebrity marketing (Super Bowl ads with Chris Pratt/Hemsworth/Kris Jenner, Doja Cat, an Oprah 'gift of the season' endorsement) drove Ray-Ban Meta glasses to 7M+ units sold in 2025 and genuine mainstream cool-factor. Apple Vision Pro, the device actually discussed, instead saw ad spend cut >95% and sales collapse -- it never achieved social acceptance despite Apple's efforts.
hit Palmer Luckey: Militaries will move toward fully autonomous fighters rather than manned systems or exoskeleton/flying-suit soldiers, because the human has become the limiting factor rather than the enabler.
EP #50 · 2023-06-21 · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“We're now getting to the point where the human is the limitation, not the enabler... it's the reason we're going to go to fully autonomous fighters instead of putting the... squishy meat body in the middle of the thing.”
⚖️ Confirmed: the USAF's Collaborative Combat Aircraft program is fielding uncrewed 'loyal wingman' fighters -- Anduril's YFQ-44A Fury (first flight Oct 31, 2025) and General Atomics' YFQ-42A -- with production contracts awarded June 2026 for the first 150 aircraft and a long-term goal of 1,000 CCAs; no exoskeleton/flying-suit soldier programs materialized, matching Luckey's prediction directly.
partial Palmer Luckey: Huge companies will be built specifically around solving the collapsing global birth-rate problem.
EP #50 · 2023-06-21 · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“I think we're going to see huge companies built on solving just that problem.”
⚖️ Pronatalism/fertility became a real business and cultural wave -- Musk-style pronatalism went mainstream, and startups like Orchid Health, Conception (artificial wombs), Gameto, Natural Cycles and dozens of femtech firms have raised hundreds of millions -- but no single company has yet become a breakout 'huge company' (comparable to a SpaceX-of-fertility) specifically built around reversing birth-rate decline.
partial Palmer Luckey: AI will shorten (not create) the timeline for home-brewed bioweapons — e.g., pulling a roughly 5-year-out capability in to about 2 years out.
EP #50 · 2023-06-21 · due: ~2025 · ▶ watch
“maybe it maybe it instead of 5 years from now, people are able to do it 2 years from now.”
⚖️ Directionally supported but not precisely verified: multiple 2025-2026 reports (Schmidt/Wang/Hendrycks paper, RAND, CSIS, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) confirm AI is lowering technical/knowledge barriers to bioweapon development, but the evidence base is explicitly described as 'preliminary' and 'contested,' with no confirmed real-world case validating a specific 5-to-2-year timeline compression by 2025.
miss Palmer Luckey: AI will be protecting critical infrastructure like the energy grid from cyberattack well before hyper-advanced AI is being used to attack it, because AI structurally favors the defender.
EP #50 · 2023-06-21 · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“I would hope for example, we have amazing AI protecting our energy grid from attack long before we have hyper advanced AI that's attacking our energy grid.”
⚖️ Offense arrived first in headline terms: state-sponsored actors have already used AI agents to autonomously run reconnaissance, map networks, and conduct lateral movement against critical targets (e.g., Anthropic's 2025 disclosure of Chinese state-linked actors misusing Claude for cyber operations), while dedicated AI defense of the grid is only now being stood up (e.g., California's AI Cyber Defense Program announced August 2026) -- the hoped-for defense-before-offense order did not clearly materialize.
miss Palmer Luckey: Destructive wildfires can be entirely eliminated (treated like polio) using technology that already exists today, if deploying it is made a priority.
EP #50 · 2023-06-21 · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“I think that that's totally possible. Not with the technology of a century from now, but with the technology that literally exists today.”
⚖️ Reality moved the opposite direction: the January 2025 Los Angeles firestorm (Palisades + Eaton fires) became one of the most destructive wildfire events in US history -- ~440 deaths, 16,000+ structures destroyed, $76-131B in losses -- despite existing detection/suppression tech. The XPRIZE Wildfire competition Luckey championed is still mid-competition with finals not held until summer 2026 and winners not yet named, so no proven system has been fielded at the scale needed to back up the 'totally possible today' claim.
partial Michael Saylor: Zero-marginal-cost digital education could make a PhD-equivalent education available for about $1,000-$2,000 all-in, the price of an iPad and some electricity.
EP #9 · 2022-11-03 · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“you could create a PhD for $1,000 or $2,000 all in for the... price of an iPad and some electricity”
⚖️ In March 2026 Saylor Academy became the ASIC-accredited nonprofit 'Saylor University,' offering tuition-free, fully online master's degrees where the only cost is $5 per proctored exam (about $75-225 total per program) -- cheaper than his own $1,000-2,000 estimate. But this is master's-level, not PhD-level, credentialing, so the scaling trend is real while the specific PhD claim isn't literally met.
miss Michael Saylor: A simple, permissionless mobile wallet holding both fiat currency and Bitcoin will emerge and dematerialize the entire financial establishment, empowering everyone on Earth to control their own economic life force.
EP #9 · 2022-11-03 · due: unspecified · ▶ watch
“It would completely dematerialize the entire financial establishment, and it would empower everybody on Earth to take possession of their life force.”
⚖️ The MicroStrategy Lightning Network wallet/enterprise-plugin project Saylor was touting around this period (announced late 2022, demoed 2023) went quiet with no public updates since, and by 2026 the renamed 'Strategy' operates purely as a corporate Bitcoin-treasury holding vehicle, not a wallet company. No permissionless universal fiat+BTC wallet has dematerialized the financial establishment; the World Bank's 2025 Global Findex reports 1.3 billion adults still unbanked, with the reduction from ~2022 levels driven mainly by mobile money, not Bitcoin wallets.
hit Eric Schmidt: Industrial-strength AI will be achieved.
EP #7 · 2022-10-27 · due: ~2032 (next 10 years from April 2022) · ▶ watch
“I think it's extremely clear that in the next 10 years we're going to get industrial strength AI”
⚖️ Achieved well ahead of the 10-year deadline: by 2025-2026, AI is embedded in production software (GitHub Copilot, Claude Code, Cursor), enterprise operations (Gartner projected 40% of enterprise apps would feature task-specific AI agents by 2026, up from under 5% in 2025), and industrial/manufacturing/logistics/defense use cases -- genuinely 'industrial strength' deployment, not a lab demo.
hit Eric Schmidt: AI systems will become genuinely multimodal, handling text, speech, and video together.
EP #7 · 2022-10-27 · due: ~2027 (next 5 years from April 2022) · ▶ watch
“for the next 5 years you should expect multimodal which means you're going to have text and speech and video”
⚖️ Arrived years ahead of the 5-year (2027) deadline: GPT-4V (Mar 2023) and native-multimodal Gemini (Dec 2023) combined text/image, GPT-4o (May 2024) unified text/audio/video/image in one model, and Google's Veo (May 2024) added high-fidelity text-to-video -- text, speech, and video are now standard in flagship models.
partial Eric Schmidt: Usable, explainable, conversational AI systems (where you can ask the system why it made a decision) will become part of everyday global life.
EP #7 · 2022-10-27 · due: ~2027 (next 5 years from April 2022) · ▶ watch
“think of it as the next 5 years industrial strength usable Global conversational systems you can say to the system why did you do this... it will become part of our lives”
⚖️ The 'part of everyday global life' half landed hard -- ChatGPT alone reached hundreds of millions of weekly users by 2025-2026 and conversational AI (Claude, Gemini, Copilot) is mainstream -- but the 'ask the system why it did this' explainability half has not: 2026 AI Safety Index and interpretability research still describe frontier LLMs as unreliable black boxes, with mechanistic interpretability an active, unsolved research frontier rather than a shipped consumer feature.
hit Eric Schmidt: The share of software code written by AI (versus humans) -- roughly a third in 2022's Microsoft Codex -- will grow to a much larger percentage.
EP #7 · 2022-10-27 · due: within a few years of 2022 · ▶ watch
“imagine that that number will get a much larger percentage written by computer over the next few years”
⚖️ Confirmed: Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said in April 2025 that AI generates ~30% of Microsoft's code, Google reported a similar ~25-30% figure, industry-wide estimates put roughly 41% of all new code as AI-generated by early 2026, and Anthropic reports far higher internal figures (spokesperson cited 70-90% company-wide, with some engineers like Claude Code lead Boris Cherny saying 100% of their own code is now AI-written) -- all well above the 2022 one-third Codex baseline.
partial China: China will catch up to the US in AI by 2025 and achieve AI dominance by 2030, per its officially announced 'China 2030' plan.
EP #7 · 2022-10-27 · due: 2030 (catch-up target 2025) · ▶ watch
“China 2030 plan which included a statement in Chinese that they would be dominant by 2030 that they would catch up by 2025”
⚖️ The 2025 checkpoint has passed and shows narrowing, not full catch-up: DeepSeek-R1 (Jan 2025) matched OpenAI's o1 within 0.4% on Chatbot Arena and shocked Silicon Valley, and by mid-2026 the leading Chinese lab trails the US frontier by roughly 6-8 months (down from Schmidt's own 1-2 year estimate in 2022) -- real convergence on specific benchmarks (coding, math) but US labs (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google) still generally lead overall as of August 2026; 2030 dominance remains open/unresolved.
partial Eric Schmidt: The US and China will be roughly equal on all significant AI capabilities, though their systems will be built on differing values.
EP #7 · 2022-10-27 · due: ~2027 (next 5 years from April 2022) · ▶ watch
“in the next five years the two countries will be roughly equal on everything interesting but the systems will be built with different values”
⚖️ With the 5-year deadline (2027) about to elapse, the trend strongly supports near-parity but not full equality yet: the US lead shrank from Schmidt's cited 1-2 years (2022) to roughly 6-8 months by 2026 per multiple trackers, and China leads or matches on some tasks (coding, math) while trailing more on novel reasoning (e.g., ARC-AGI-2) -- 'roughly equal on everything interesting' is closer to true than false but not fully realized, and the values divergence (open US models vs. censored/state-aligned Chinese models) did play out as predicted.
hit Eric Schmidt: The US-China competition will be the single most important competition faced during the remainder of Schmidt's life, framed as rivalry-plus-partnership rather than war.
EP #7 · 2022-10-27 · due: open-ended (rest of Schmidt's lifetime) · ▶ watch
“a prediction I will make is that the competition between the US and China is the most important competition that we're going to face during the rest of my life”
⚖️ This has clearly played out: US-China AI/tech rivalry has dominated geopolitics since 2022 -- export controls and entity-list bans on chips (Nvidia H20/H100 restrictions), the CHIPS Act, an AI diffusion framework, and the January 2025 'DeepSeek shock' to US markets and policy -- while staying short of open conflict, matching Schmidt's 'rivalry partnership, not war' framing.