Alvin Wang Graylin
6 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 6 still open
open Alvin Wang Graylin: A private-credit bubble financing the US AI data center buildout will pop, prompting the US (possibly Trump) to ask China for financial help, in exchange for the US backing off its involvement in Taiwan.
“maybe at that point uh the Americans uh or maybe Trump will will give a call to she and say hey can you help us out again”
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open Alvin Wang Graylin: Chinese GPU makers (referenced as Moore Threads, Cambricon, Biren) will catch up to US chip technology and begin exporting their chips internationally.
“within the next you know two or three years they will start to catch up to to what what America is doing and they will start to export their chips”
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open Alvin Wang Graylin: The 150-200+ Chinese humanoid robot companies demoing products will consolidate down to a single-digit number of survivors.
“in the next year or two uh you'll see that 150 go down to you know probably you know a single-digit number of surviving um uh human and robot companies”
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open Alvin Wang Graylin: China's share of global manufacturing capability will rise from roughly 35% today to 40-45%, while the US share (~15%) stagnates.
“I think the forecast is it's going to go to 40 or 45% over the next 5 or 10 years”
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open Alvin Wang Graylin: The current AI-driven US stock market concentration (45% of market value, Buffett indicator at 240% of GDP) will trigger an economic correction.
“that to me is a sign that we are in a very very fragile place and a economic correction is due”
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open Alvin Wang Graylin: 70% of Chinese companies will have integrated AI into their operations within 5 years, rising to over 90% within 10 years.
“within the next 5 years we want to have 70% of companies integrate AI into their their business... within the next 10 years we want to have 90 plus%”
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