Elon Musk (clip)
22 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 22 still open
open Elon Musk (clip): SpaceX will reach $100 billion+ in annual recurring revenue.
“we are expecting to reach 100 billion uh plus ARR uh in December of this year.”
open Elon Musk (clip): SpaceX will reach a trillion dollars in annual revenue, moved up from a prior 2031 projection.
“our internal projections for reaching a trillion dollars in revenue... have moved up from 2031 to 2030... there's a non-zero chance of that being in 2029.”
open Elon Musk (clip): Money will stop mattering as robots produce more goods and services than any human could consume, and deflation (not inflation) will be the dominant economic issue
“Money won't matter in 2036.”
open Elon Musk (clip): Grok Imagine will generate a full-length, historically accurate feature film of Homer's Odyssey from a text prompt.
“Before the end of the year, Grock imagine will generate a fulllength movie of the Odyssey, historically accurate, true to the art of Homer, a feature film from a text prompt by December.”
open Elon Musk (clip): AI will exceed the sum of all human intelligence, with nothing AI can't do better than humans apart from being human.
“AI may exceed the sum of human intelligence in about in around 5 years... roughly five years is my guess. There really won't be anything that AI can't do better than humans apart from being human.”
open Elon Musk (clip): We are headed for an age of amazing abundance where anyone can have anything they can think of.
“I think we're headed for an age of amazing abundance... here we are in 2026. Let's see where we stand in 2036.”
open Elon Musk (clip): xAI's 2-trillion-parameter model (Grok 4.5) will finish initial training and may exceed Kimi K3 while matching the speed/token-efficiency of its 1.5-trillion-parameter predecessor.
“Our two trillion model, which is better than our 1.5 trillion in every way, will finish initial training next week. It might be able to exceed Kimmy, but with speed and token efficiency close to our 1.5 trillion, aka Grok 4.5.”
open Elon Musk (clip): Tens of millions to 50 million robots will exist globally by 2030, with billions more in the early 2030s.
“Elon projecting tens of millions of robots to 50 million robots by 2030 and billions going into the early 2030s”
open Elon Musk (clip): Phones capable of using newly acquired spectrum for direct satellite-to-phone connectivity (including video streaming anywhere) will start shipping in about two years.
“the phones that are able to use the spectrum that was acquired probably start shipping in around two years”
open Elon Musk (clip): Neuralink may attempt the first direct human-to-human telepathic (brain-to-brain) communication.
“Elon announced that Neuralink may make an attempt later this year for the first direct human-to-human telepathic communications”
open Elon Musk (clip): Full-length motion pictures generated entirely by AI will emerge.
“Elon said by the end of this year, full-length motion pictures coming out of AI. Hollywood is cooked.”
open Elon Musk (clip): Grok will follow a roadmap of 4.4 (1 trillion parameters, early April), then 4.5 (1.5 trillion), 4.8, 4.9, with Grok 5 achieving AGI and Grok 6/7 achieving ASI and 'ASI 2.'
“Grok 4.4 will be twice the size of 1 trillion parameters of 4.3... Grok 5 he predicts to be AGI, Grok 6 ASI, Grok 7 ASI 2.”
open Elon Musk (clip): The US will end up with both universal high income and social unrest at the same time.
“Yeah, it seems likely.”
open Elon Musk (clip): SpaceX/Tesla will be launching and operating more AI compute capacity in space every year than the cumulative total of all AI compute on Earth, reaching a few hundred gigawatts per year of AI in space.
“5 years from now, my prediction is we will launch and be operating every year more AI in space than than this than the cumulative total on Earth”
open Elon Musk (clip): SpaceX will launch solar-powered AI satellites in orbit, scaling to hundreds of terawatts of power generation, taking advantage of space having far more room and higher solar efficiency than Earth.
“one of the things we'll be doing with SpaceX uh in within a few years is launching um solar powered AI satellites... you can scale to ultimately hundreds hundreds of terowatts a year.”
open Elon Musk (clip): AI and robotics will fundamentally displace all human labor.
“he expects in the next 3 to 5 years that AI and robotics would fundamentally displace all human labor”
open Elon Musk (clip): The US economy will see double-digit (roughly 10%) growth in the coming 12 to 18 months.
“we're going to see double digit growth in the coming 12 to 18 months”
open Elon Musk (clip): If applied intelligence is a valid proxy for economic growth, growth should reach triple digits (roughly 100%) within 5 years.
“If applied intelligence is proxy for economic growth, it should be triple digits uh within 5 years”
open Elon Musk (clip): AI and humanoid robots will eliminate poverty, with Tesla pioneering humanoid robots alongside many other manufacturers.
“there is only basically one way to make everyone wealthy, and that is AI and robotics”
open Elon Musk (clip): Optimus will move from 2025 prototypes to mass production with a goal of 1 million robots per year, addressing a $25 trillion market.
“prototypes by the end of 2025. mass production in 26 with a goal of 1 million robots per year... a $25 trillion market”
open Elon Musk (clip): AI/robot companionship will counterintuitively increase the human birth rate because AI will be deliberately programmed to encourage it.
“I predict counterintuitively that it will increase the birth rate. We're going to program it that way.”
open Elon Musk (clip): Humanoid robots will scale to tens of billions of units, potentially creating an economy ten times the size of today's global economy with 'universal high income.'
“my prediction actually for humanoid robots is that ultimately there will be... tens of billions... potentially we could have an economy 10 times the size of the current global economy where... no one wants for anything”