Brett Adcock
50 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 50 still open
open Brett Adcock: Humanoid robots will perform unsupervised, multi-day tasks in homes they've never seen before.
“By the end of 2026, we will have humanoid robots performing unsupervised multi-day tasks in homes they've never seen before.”
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open Brett Adcock: 1X will produce 10,000 units of its Neo home humanoid robot.
“Burnt's goal is to produce 10,000 of these in 2026.”
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open Brett Adcock: Figure will put robots on its BotQ production lines in 2026 and begin phasing humans out of building robots.
“we will put robots on our Baku lines this year”
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open Brett Adcock: Figure aims to reach one robot produced every 30 minutes in the near term at BotQ.
“We're we're trying to get there in the near term right now”
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open Brett Adcock: Figure 3 robots start shipping into The Grid, a 24/7 facility that will grow to hundreds of robots doing home and commercial work.
“we'll start shipping figure 3es into it like this month”
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open Brett Adcock: By end of 2026 Figure can put a robot into an unseen home and have it do fairly long-horizon work, measured by human interventions per hour or day.
“by end of year we will we'll be able to put a robot into an unseen home”
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open Brett Adcock: Figure begins shipping robots into users' homes in 2027, scaling through an iterative ladder of 1, 10, 100, 1,000, 10,000 homes and beyond.
“next year you'd be on a path to where you could ship them into users homes”
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open Brett Adcock: Figure will show real general-purpose capability inside the robot by next year, possibly this year.
“Maybe even as soon as this year”
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open Brett Adcock: By end of 2026 humanoid hardware will be able to do what surgeons do (real surgery under teleoperation), with AI layered on top afterward.
“pretty confident by the end of this year you'll have a hardware system”
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open Brett Adcock: Within about 24 months, robots will build all of the robots.
“I hope in 24 months where the all the robots will build all the robots”
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open Brett Adcock: Humanoid population reaches one per human plus roughly 5-10 billion in the commercial workforce, with tens of billions possible on the planet.
“you could basically build tens of billions of humanoids on a planet”
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open Brett Adcock: Humanoid robotics will become the largest economy in the world, addressing about half of global GDP in human labor (about $50 trillion).
“this is like going to be the largest economy in the world”
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open Brett Adcock: The humanoid industry consolidates to far fewer than 10 groups globally.
“far far less than 10”
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open Brett Adcock: Figure will have almost none of its supply chain in China by summer 2026.
“by summer we'll have almost none of our uh supply chain in China”
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open Brett Adcock: Humanoid prices fall over time to about $10-20K per robot, with higher-spec versions around $50K.
“over time you're going to get the robots down to 10 $20,000”
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open Brett Adcock: If a true general-purpose humanoid existed today, Figure could ship a billion of them.
“I think we could ship a billion of them today”
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open Brett Adcock: In the future everything that moves besides humans will be a robot, and humanoids will dominate the plurality of them, with other robot types niche.
“everything that'll move will be a robot”
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open Brett Adcock: At some point, first in San Francisco, people will see more humanoids than humans on the street.
“you'll see more humanoids than humans”
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open Brett Adcock: The next 12 to 18 months will bring the largest AI transformation we have ever seen.
“the largest AI transformation we've ever seen”
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open Brett Adcock: Figure's CEO anticipates humanoid robots will be present in homes within the next 2 to 3 years.
“Brett Adcock, the CEO of Figure, anticipates they'll have robots in our home in the next 2 to 3 years.”
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open Brett Adcock: At high-volume manufacturing, humanoid robots will sell near $20,000-$30,000.
“you'll see these at a price point of 20 to $30,000, you still hold that”
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open Brett Adcock: Everything in the future that moves will be a robot, powered by AI agents like Helix.
“everything in the future that moves will be a robot and it will be powered by AI agents like this”
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open Brett Adcock: Figure will show a minor Figure 3 update within about a week of this interview.
“I think we'll probably show an update next week, just a quick minor update”
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open Brett Adcock: Figure 3 will enter production manufacturing this year.
“we're going into production, manufacturing with that, this year”
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open Brett Adcock: Robots will learn new physical tasks in a matter of hours rather than years, this year.
“the robots are going to learn how to do something in the matter of hours here, not like 10 years from now, like this year”
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open Brett Adcock: Figure will begin alpha-testing robots inside employees' homes this year.
“that's what we'll start alpha testing in the home this year”
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open Brett Adcock: Humanoid robots will be put into homes this decade, doing long-horizon work through speech commands alone.
“I think you're going to see it in the coming years being put into homes just through speech”
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open Brett Adcock: 10 billion robots on the planet by 2040
“by 2040 we will have 10 billion robots on the planet”
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open Brett Adcock: Reducing the cost of humanoid robots by over an order of magnitude.
“I think you're getting these costs down like sub $20,000 a unit like really cheap.”
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open Brett Adcock: Automation will drive GDP growth to infinity.
“GDP spikes to Infinity yeah”
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open Brett Adcock: Robots will be rolled out commercially and make a significant impact.
“we're at right now it's like how do we take you know like you know we're putting out cool videos and um that's great but like the next big step is like to go back and do useful work continuously”
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open Brett Adcock: Humanoid robots will be as common as cars in the future.
“I think that they will be more prevalent than cars are out there right there's like a million cars like a million other vehicles and we could see you know 5 to 10 I'm sorry a billion cars out there a billion other vehicles um and so it's going to be a very different future for them”
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open Brett Adcock: There will be 2-3 significant players in the humanoid robotics market.
“I think there'll be like I think the the way I look at it is we need more like really real players and I think Tesla's a really real player.”
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open Brett Adcock: Chinese robotics companies will be competitive in the humanoid space.
“I do think China is like the next group of folks that are going to be really competitive long term in the humanoid space.”
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open Brett Adcock: Longer term, the supply chain will be better controlled to reduce risk and margin profile.
“but there's just like um yeah I think we thought that was easy it became like a bloody hell so what's what's the what's the flip side of this thing that you thought was going to be hard and turned out to be easy would it would it maybe be the AI integration did I mean when you started did you imagine you're going to have to build out your own AI models we still do like a lot of our own AI models here which is like maybe not super well known but like um but we do we have a whole AI team we do most of the lot of work ourselves I would say across this we leverage some group like you know open AI we like work with on new models and stuff and use their like VM for some things so I think uh then that's been really helpful I think AI systems is probably the one that's been like wow this is really working and it's you know you think about like this split of like what percentage of the things are you going to have to hardcode and code to go do which is like you know more classical controls and heristics what percentage of things can we do through neural networks and I you know I would have thought going into this I guess my thoughts two years ago is like you know a large percentage of the stack would be written in in heristics and code um call like 95 90% And then as we are able to you know write neural nets for those that are at equivalent performance we will just take those uh that level of like code or C++ and remove it with the neural net and it's kind of been flipped yeah um all the is working uh for like a small team with like you know we don't have like a ton of tooling and infrastructure and things almost like right off the bat uh with like everything like just like like using slam or perception systems and object detectors and um planning and uh speech to speech reasoning everything the St like the high and low low levels have been working incredibly well and um so yeah I think it's pretty magical I just like it would take us such a long time to code all this stuff”
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open Brett Adcock: The company will continue to leverage AI for health guidance and personalized health advice.
“did you see the movie Oppenheimer if you did did you know that besides building the atomic bomb at Los Alamos National Labs that they spent billions on bio defense weapons the ability to accurately detect viruses and microbes by reading their RNA well a company called viome exclusively licensed the technology from Los Alamos labs to build a platform that can measure your microbiome and the RNA in your blood now viome has a product that I've personally used for years called full body intelligence which collects a few drops of your blood spit and stool and can tell you so much about your health they've tested over 700,000 individuals and used their AI models to deliver members critical Health guidance like what foods you should eat what foods you shouldn't eat as well as your supplements and probiotics”
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open Brett Adcock: The company will start production next year and gradually expand to more customers as the product matures.
“we're starting a production line next year so um we'll start with a few as we um you know have like engineering really close with those customers and making sure that the product really works well”
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open Brett Adcock: The timeline for robots entering the home is accelerating.
“the timeline for us getting in home is accelerating”
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open Brett Adcock: Over the next year or two, we'll hopefully demonstrate that humanoid robots are useful and good work for humanity.
“This is the right decade to make that happen and I think over the next year or two we'll hopefully demonstrate that.”
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open Brett Adcock: By 2030 or 2040, there will be billions of humanoids on the planet.
“I think over the next couple decades we're really going to be volume manufacturing limited in how much supply we can get of humanoids into the market.”
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open Brett Adcock: By the end of this decade, early next decade, we'll start seeing early life of humanoids in homes helping out.
“I think it's just going to take some time to uh we we need a lot of maturity across the product that we're going to do through the corporate labor market. Safety as well.”
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open Brett Adcock: Substantial product development for the humanoid robot over the next year or two.
“So we'll do the AI systems like little level controls. Um and ultimately showing the robot can actually do useful real world things.”
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open Brett Adcock: The software capabilities of the robot can be updated regularly, similar to Tesla's software updates.
“Amazing. And I I love the idea that that your robots can be are software updated on a regular basis to increase their capabilities the same way your Tesla might be updated on a regular basis.”
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open Brett Adcock: Demonstrate that humanoid robots can be successful in the next year or two.
“So, I think over the next year or two we'll hopefully demonstrate that here.”
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open Brett Adcock: Brett Adcock will continue to build and innovate in the eVTOL and humanoid robotics space.
“I basically built three, four generations of electric aircraft down there uh with a small team of PhDs.”
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open Brett Adcock: Robot production rates will increase in warehouses and logistics for tasks such as packing, unpacking, and trucking in the next few years.
“we're going to see these robots. There is a ton of capital going in.”
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open Brett Adcock: By 2030, the company will have reached a stage of maturity where humanoid robots can be useful in client scenarios.
“I think the big stage we're in now is can we show a robot humanoid robot can be useful in a client scenario in a real way.”
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open Brett Adcock: It will take 5-10 years to put a million robots into the world.
“So, if you want to put a million robots into the world, like it takes, you know, no sooner than 5 years, maybe no longer than 10 or 12 years to do that, based on historical precedent.”
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open Brett Adcock: Supporting the elderly population will be a significant market for humanoid robots.
“One of the hardest things you you mentioned is like no nobody really wants to leave their home for you know, the personal home they've been in for decades for for one of these facilities.”
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