Palmer Luckey
22 tracked predictions · 1 hit · 5 partial · 2 miss · 14 still open
open Palmer Luckey: The conflict is between the US, China, and rogue actors, not specifically US versus China.
“It's US and China versus the rogue actor.”
Your call:
open Palmer Luckey: China's material threats regarding Taiwan by force within this generation will come true.
“China's made real material threats and said they are going to reunify with Taiwan by force if necessary within this generation.”
Your call:
open Palmer Luckey: AI will reach IQ levels just above human levels by 2029-2030.
“AI reaching IQ's just above human levels of 101. This was uh Claude 3 and then GPTO3 just came in at a 135 IQ.”
Your call:
open Palmer Luckey: AI will be critical in preventing rogue actors from taking actions.
“I think that do you do you do you imagine that as part of your future? I think it's it's a part.”
Your call:
open Palmer Luckey: Tesla's Model 3 production strategy is not suitable for defense projects.
“But Elon's never going to have one year where he needs 100 times more Model 3s and then the next year 100 times less. It's just not quite like that.”
Your call:
partial Palmer Luckey: Apple will release a cheaper version of the Vision Pro headset.
“That approach will change. Obviously they're going to do a cheaper version in the future.”
open Palmer Luckey: A hundred times more people will buy a Vision Pro-class device once its price drops to roughly a quarter of $3,500.
“there's a hundred times more people who are going to spend a quarter of that when it gets to that to that price.”
Your call:
open Palmer Luckey: Within about a decade, huge numbers of people will wear AR/VR headsets daily, continuously blending and moving between the real and digital worlds.
“You're going to see a huge number of people that are wearing headsets used for AR and VR every single day.”
Your call:
partial Palmer Luckey: Headsets will not shrink all the way down to a thin pair of glasses; they will plateau at a 'chunky sunglasses' form factor because thinner designs sacrifice too much quality.
“I think that the headsets can get down to pair of sunglasses. I don't think they will... I'd say think more kind of chunky sunglasses is probably where things are going.”
partial Palmer Luckey: AR/VR headsets will become socially acceptable to wear in public primarily through marketing/social engineering (celebrities, influencers) rather than through further engineering, and today's skepticism will look like a quaint relic.
“The real way Apple is going to make their headset cool and acceptable to wear in public is not through engineering. It's social engineering.”
open Palmer Luckey: Even after near-perfect brain-computer interfaces exist for controlling computers, people will still be wearing head-mounted displays rather than replacing the visual system directly via BCI.
“I see a future where we have near-perfect brain-to-computer interfaces for controlling our computers, we're still going to be wearing head-mounted displays. That's my opinion.”
Your call:
open Palmer Luckey: Whatever the eventual 'step change' UI paradigm for spatial computing turns out to be, Apple will adopt/adapt it even if it isn't what the current Vision Pro does.
“Whatever that step change is though, you know Apple's going to be on it. I don't think that they're going to be stubborn about it.”
Your call:
hit Palmer Luckey: Militaries will move toward fully autonomous fighters rather than manned systems or exoskeleton/flying-suit soldiers, because the human has become the limiting factor rather than the enabler.
“We're now getting to the point where the human is the limitation, not the enabler... it's the reason we're going to go to fully autonomous fighters instead of putting the... squishy meat body in the middle of the thing.”
partial Palmer Luckey: Huge companies will be built specifically around solving the collapsing global birth-rate problem.
“I think we're going to see huge companies built on solving just that problem.”
open Palmer Luckey: Within 10 to 20 years, people will be more concerned about birth rates than about climate change.
“if you give it 10 or 20 years, people are going to be even more concerned about the birth rate than they are climate change.”
Your call:
partial Palmer Luckey: AI will shorten (not create) the timeline for home-brewed bioweapons — e.g., pulling a roughly 5-year-out capability in to about 2 years out.
“maybe it maybe it instead of 5 years from now, people are able to do it 2 years from now.”
miss Palmer Luckey: AI will be protecting critical infrastructure like the energy grid from cyberattack well before hyper-advanced AI is being used to attack it, because AI structurally favors the defender.
“I would hope for example, we have amazing AI protecting our energy grid from attack long before we have hyper advanced AI that's attacking our energy grid.”
open Palmer Luckey: As with prior automation waves, workers displaced from automatable tasks (e.g., truck driving) will move to higher-value, more meaningful work rather than becoming permanently jobless.
“AI is going to get rid of the part where you turn the steering wheel real good. But all those people are going to move on to doing other jobs that are of much more value.”
Your call:
miss Palmer Luckey: Destructive wildfires can be entirely eliminated (treated like polio) using technology that already exists today, if deploying it is made a priority.
“I think that that's totally possible. Not with the technology of a century from now, but with the technology that literally exists today.”
open Palmer Luckey: VR devices will replace the sense of vision perfectly within the next 10 years.
“we're going to be able to replace at least the sense of vision perfectly within the next 10 Years”
Your call:
open Palmer Luckey: VR will become cool through marketing, similar to how Apple marketed sunglasses in the past.
“Apple's going to Market it well enough they're going to pay to put it on all the celebrities and then everyone's going to believe that it's cool.”
Your call:
open Palmer Luckey: It took him one weekend to build the VR headset that can kill the user if they die in the game.
“it took me literally one weekend to build this”
Your call: