Philip Johnson
4 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 4 still open
open Philip Johnson: Within 10 years, most new compute capacity added globally will be deployed in space, though total space-based compute share will still be under 5% of all compute.
“in 10 years I would say most new compute capacity will be in space”
Your call:
open Philip Johnson: In 20 years, less than half of all global compute will be located in space, but eventually (on a roughly 50-year timeframe) 99% of all compute will be in space.
“I would be surprised if more than half of all compute is in space in 20 years even... but beyond that certainly there'll come a point... where 99% of all computers is in space”
Your call:
open Philip Johnson: SpaceX will effectively have a monopoly on heavy launch in 5 years, but not in 10 years.
“if you ask me, do I think SpaceX has a monopoly and launch in five years? The answer is yes. In 10 years, the answer is no”
Your call:
open Philip Johnson: Mass drivers (rail guns) for launch from the lunar surface will likely emerge around 20 years from now.
“I do think we'll have mass drivers on the moon and I think they'll probably come sooner than most people... around the that time frame [20 years]”
Your call: