Ramez Naam
8 tracked predictions · 0 hit · 0 partial · 0 miss · 8 still open
open Ramez Naam: A request today for hundreds of megawatts to power a new data center in ERCOT (Texas), the fastest-moving US grid, will not receive power before 2031-2032.
“good luck getting that power before 2031 2032”
Your call:
open Ramez Naam: Battery-backed, interruptible-load data center deals that time-shift demand off peak hours will go from an unusual approach today to a widely common industry practice.
“12 months from now this will be a super common approach”
Your call:
open Ramez Naam: EV-charging-style demand flexibility and load timeshifting will unlock roughly 100GW of grid capacity for new AI data centers over the next five years.
“that's the next five years of AI data center growth”
Your call:
open Ramez Naam: SpaceX aims to reach 100 gigawatts per year of AI compute launched into orbit.
“before 2030 he wants to get to 100 gawatts per year”
Your call:
open Ramez Naam: SpaceX is unlikely to have even a single gigawatt of AI compute operating in space.
“if SpaceX has a gig single gigawatt in space, I will be very impressed”
Your call:
open Ramez Naam: No company will have an actual commercial small modular reactor operating despite the industry's own optimistic targets.
“I don't expect anyone to actually have a commercial small modular reactor in 2030 2031”
Your call:
open Ramez Naam: Helion will deliver 50 megawatts of fusion power to Microsoft under their power purchase agreement.
“a power purchase agreement from Microsoft to provide 50 megawatts of power... in 2028”
Your call:
open Ramez Naam: Nvidia's CUDA software moat will be effectively broken as AI-assisted code recompilation lets workloads run efficiently on rival chips like AMD and Cerebras.
“I think the CUDA moat is broken this year and next year”
Your call: