Ray Dalio

“do you think you're not going to have an economic downturn do you think you're not going to have a bare Market really how do you think about China we are at war with China and you cannot lose the war everybody”

“we are at war with China and you cannot lose the war everybody”

“if I understand this correctly right the federal reserve's mandate is basically to juggle jobs and inflation right uh provide maximum jobs maximum employment stable prices moderate long-term interest rates and traditionally you lower interest rates that boosts employment because companies can borrow cheaply that expand operation that hire more work more workers and that's been the game up until recently now you've got uh Optimus humanoid robot and figure you know the prediction right now is we'll have billions of them by the mid 2030s you know elon's prediction when I interviewed him at uh uh at fi in Riad it was you know 10 billion by 2040 you had Sam wman tweet out yesterday that their 03 Mini model um and their deep research Tech will start displacing singled digit uh employee you know the white collar workers right away I interviewed uh mark benof on this podcast I don't know two weeks ago he said listen with uh with salesforce's new agent technology we're 30% more productive and are hiring no new engineers and so the question becomes you know as we're marching forward here if a company has access to lower interest rates wouldn't they just buy more robots and hire more AI agents and thereby you know reduce labor and sort of create this massive decoupling compared to what had been the the process yeah uh um it is I think virtually certain but that's even that's debatable but it is virtually certain that it will replace a lot of people and that uh what we've been seeing in the form of a wealth impact of technology in which there's um small population that has unicorns and it's the most most wonderful world that we can possibly imagine to be in um also we have a population in the United States where 60% of the population has below a sixth grade reading level and and is pretty broke and so that is likely to uh happen there's going to be great disruption and then the question and the question for all of these things is how are we going to deal with each other I mean the number one question on all five of these and demographics is how do you and I and we deal with each other so that um we're not just dealing with in a greedy way of our of our own self because you can have great civil war or a conflict due to not managing such social issues and those issues um are difficult to manage because everybody has a polarity regarding those social issues”

“the challenge again is again in coming from your recent work uh you how governments go broke um if workers aren't seeing wage growth and aren't getting jobs then who's driving consumption and then how does that drive our economy I guess the question is well is it going to accelerate uh your predictions on the challenges well the techn the technology advances are a two-edged sword the way I think it is it's going to raise productivity it's going to raise output for manh hour sure okay um and that's a good thing and that power of that good thing you know means you don't have to work as much or you anyway or you get more out of that uh result and um then it becomes what do you do with the distribution of that right yeah so um so it becomes a how are you like with each other to deal with these incredible disruption effects I would say I just also I want to say uh something I um I think that we all think we're optimizing for the things that those Technologies get us in other words wouldn't it is it'll be wonderful our life expectancy rises um we become smarter all of these wonderful things who could argue about their life expectancy rising and so on and sometimes we lose sight that that may not even be the most important things in a world that's in conflict um and so on so if you look I did a I did a study of the well-being of 24 top countries using a lot of Statistics it's by the way it's online anybody could see it it's a great Powers measures and it's very interesting that um I measure different measures of power income military power education power different types of power um and then I measure happiness MH and I health and past a certain basic level there is no correlation between um per income and happiness and health yeah I I remember that that number was around $70,000 or thereabouts for H for happiness um it's it actually is considerably less than that number I don't know what it is but I know like for example Indonesia I was thinking for the United States yeah yeah has a much happier uh population and in terms of per capita income and in terms of health it's much lower but they have a much happier population um I I I would have to go back and check sort of how but it's more mostly above um that which is needed to have to be out of pain you know to right and the United States in terms of health has a fiveyear lesser life expectancy than Canada and comparable income countries you know in other words the developed countries yeah so and and if we think back in time were your parents that we knew my parents MH were they less happy or well off and then think about what the hell of wars and things are so there it's it's not just optimized by technology and okay I get more life we have to pay attention to these other things too so so part of the question becomes is there is there going to be a new type of social contract that's going to have to be created I mean I do believe and and I write about this and I think about this a lot that technology is a force that turns whatever was scarce into abundance right we've created massive energy abundance and food abundance to the point where where obesity is thing abundance of information abundance of all the entertainment you could possibly want abundance of almost every there's very little that if you pushed me I couldn't paint a picture of increasing abundance even life uh the amount of things you can do per unit time um per second dur today so the efficiency of the of how we spend our time uh but even with that increasing abundance uh if people are unhappy and it turns us towards civil Strife then we've got real issues yeah I think um I think that we can agree um on the fact that the technology and AI is going to be a force and it's a tailwind and then we also have to realize that the other four or five forces are big headwinds and the question is is the Tailwind greater than the headwind in the appropriate time and oh so so when I think about that um we'll we'll get into the debt problem okay we're going to have an an immediate we're going to come into budget season um and we will over the next several months and if they don't do something we're going to have a major debt problem and we'll talk about that in a minute but it's a headwind yeah the internal conflict”

“I think it's going to be a bigger Revolution yeah but when we actually say okay what is its magnitude I'm sort of like I don't know if it's 1.2 25 or or 1.5 what the other one was cuz man it it when you look back on it it may not look big when you're in it and you imagine the future like this is and then we have the headwinds and we have a timing issue okay because that baby better come on and we better get there in time”

“but that upward movement um is slow like if you had a bust now MH okay you could imagine how that would change allocations of money how that would change Innovations and so on uh to some extent I mean I think that uh we're in a position that might be somewhat analogous to 1998 or 1999 where um um you know I'm digressing but um just to complete bu right well yeah what happens is assets become more and more expensive and then there”

“do you think you're not going to have an economic downturn do you think you're not going to have a bare Market”

“it looks to me like we're in 1998 you know these all become how extreme okay and so I have measures I have indicators like that give it and it looks like 98”

“in the next 5 to 10 years we will see fundamental breakthroughs in human health span and Longevity”

“We have gone from a multinational multilateral environment to a unilateral each country for their own might is right kind of environment.”

“the theories are going to be put to the test and the consequences you know does you know does the cost cutting happen does the is that realistic you know how many numbers can you do that um and not only because of you know its secondary consequences um but and then there has to be prior PR ization I think the prioritization is also going to be um smartly on energy for data centers um and the building of AI and so on and so but how that game goes it's going to be a tough game um so when I look at that I think um we're not going to be as happy a year from now as we think we're going to be and and because also there's that cycle things are pretty expensive if you have interest rates Rising you know there are these issues we can't get so ignoring those that we um be in the face of the AI thing um”