Salim Ismail

“I'll stick with my original estimate of about 75%... if open's worth a trillion bucks, I'd put it at 250 billion.”

“I think this is going to be a very difficult next year or two for the frontier labs.”

“The agent era becomes very real in enterprises in the more prescriptive workflows.”

“you'll be able to run an average company with about 20 or 25% of the workforce that you had before”

“this overall transition is going to take about 5 to 7 years to do this full transition”

“your performance improvement should be between 100X or higher... just 100X better”

“we estimated that we should be able to run a power plant instead of with 800 people with about 80 people”

“you're going to see a collapse into just a couple of mega funds that have massive AI budgets.”

“our our current assessment is that you should have an organization that's between 100 times or more performant than the legacy.”

“can two guys with open claw replicate a major line of business a high margin line of business that you have in 60 to 90 days. If that's the case you have an existential threat right now.”

“over time it's going to get to 10 cents.”

“I think we're going to enter a point at some point, I'll say 2, 3 years, where it won't make sense anymore.”

“I think humanoid robots are five to seven years away minimum at in in mass at mass scale uh in widespread adoption.”

“I think a fab lab on the moon and consistently doing fabrication and all that stuff is 15 years away minimum.”

“I think over time it should get higher and higher because... everything becomes computronium and everything should be in service of building that.”

“I think Saylor is right. Resilient systems will just evolve and can evolve under pressure... the Bitcoin world will be forced to get together and just go, 'Okay, we need to upgrade. Let's just do it.'”

“Something will get discovered in the next year or two using current LLM AI running on GPUs that will then dictate a very different non-lithography future. But it'll probably be five or six or seven years before those start getting manufactured at the same scale as lithography.”

“I've got my 2 years for us to get to full autonomy before my son gets his driver's license. He's 14 right now.”

“I'll make a prediction that the optimization we're doing, which is 1,000 X in 16 months, is going to keep going... in such a way that we may not need to tile the world with data centers or energy.”

“India is the rising giant for the next I think 20 30 years.”

“there will be some of those events likely this year... Very very soon, early in the year, I'll bet first half.”

“lower bound tomorrow, upper bound four or five years from now.”

“I think I will make a prediction here that Google will beat Nvidia market cap by the end of next year.”

“we're actually trying to build an AI CEO for EXO for my community right now. And we're trying to implement in the next 2 3 months”

“he would never get a driver's license... the second was that he won't go to college uh university because it'll implode before he gets there”

“AI won't destroy your company, but your org chart will if you don't do this.”

“education by 2026 education splits in two credential factories versus agency accelerators.”

“governance wins in 2026. The ones that have the fastest policy win.”

“by the end of 2026 we... still have no definition or test for either AGI or ASI but yes we will have humanoid robots with multiple arms doing the jobs are dull dangerous and dirty.”

“I think 2026 is going to see the biggest collapse of the corporate world in the history of business.”

“I'm expecting in a year or 18 months, some sensor that's in your stomach saying, 'Hey, you're about to eat that donut. Wait 10 minutes because I'm still metabolizing the coffee.'”

“But then as the date approaches, he'll launch a new project under a new name and say, 'Well, we're going to consume all that money building Stargate or you know, whatever anthropic Stargate or whatever it is.'”

“here's what I predict happens. I think the Trump administration gets involved and says, well, you want to give us 10% of Chrome to help you help you keep protective”

“I will say make a prediction that these type of robot games will fail just because we watch the Olympics for the human factor not for the speed”

“they're going to go through a lot of conions as they lose the buzz that got them there... you'll see a lot of angst, a lot of founders leaving”

“I would give it three years for retail banking”

“Jamie Diamond sent an email to everyone in the entire company, saying, 'If someone is trying to sell you AI, you better buy it or at least listen right now because this is it.'”

“I think we'll see a flood of this type of announcement in the next six months as people go, we got to get into this”

“They've they declared Google a monopoly and Eric would make Eric Schmidt would make the point that look there's five other search engines out there. Anybody could we're one click away from obscurity, right? We have to stay on the cutting edge and you got to give OpenAI credit for rolling out new features at a constant basis and iterating the product very fast.”

“And there's going to be some countries and some education systems that take advantage of that.”

“every country in the world will try and go for nuclear weapons to as a defensive stance and that's just a bad outcome.”

“the time frame for Reinventing every aspect of our lives our businesses our governments is it two five or 10 years Mo”

“we're going to see a century worth of biological progress next 5 years”

“doubling the human lifespan and so there all these incredible things right”

“I think we're we're headed for a pretty big bubble on as we as we get to the application side of this because”

“we're going to end up with a balkanization though where you know Western companies won't want to use deep secet type models”

“We're very close with Doug Burgum, the new Department of the Interior head, and he's really good on this topic.”

“I'll stick with 250 to 300 for this year.”

“I think he strikes a grand bargain to allow trade and balance the trade better um and give them Taiwan uh over a period of time and um navigate that tension and have it dissolve by creating a master deal.”

“I would love I think I would predict he will allow crypto to the level of having a Ubi type scheme for crypto that could benefit the entire population and be a beacon to the rest of the world as to where this goes.”

“The Trump Administration comes up with a a housing code hack that allows people to build temporary structures on their properties so that they can live on their own property while they rebuild a main house or or neighbor's house they can live in and an ability to have have a temporary uh housing code that lasts like a year or two that you can at least get something up and going very very quickly.”

“I think we're going to see a massive push for energy uh Independence we'll talk about this later but I think we'll see the White House basically open the floodgates reducing regulation and red tape enabling hopefully uh you know mostly solar and fision plants I think we're going to have unfortunately a fair share of coal plants as well um but we need to double the energy productivity of this country for sure so energy at all costs I think is going to be one of the the Hallmarks to this white house.”

“I think that ultimately uh we will Embrace crypto and Bitcoin in a massive fashion over these next four years uh”

“SpaceX and Blue Origin will suck the oxygen out of the atmosphere for most of the launch providers.”

“Bringing the price per kilogram per pound down 100 fold it's going to spark an entire new generation of new space economies.”

“Intelligence is really needed to manage our physical environments and adapt to the physical environment that's where I think it'll really shine as we build llms into human order robots and other robots.”

“people will say yeah we kind of passed it”

“helon which is the company he's backed will show you that Fusion Works soon”

“let's take our moon shots for 2025”

“I think we're going to hear I challenge us to get to Mars by the end of this decade and put boots on Mars and the second half of this prediction is it's likely to be Optimus robot that goes to the Martian surface.”

“I think we're going to be there soon.”

“we're going to see increased efficiencies and we're going to see job displacement”

“we have to really fundamentally rethink our structures from the bottom up”

“a lot of that acceleration in AI is going to be independent of the government”

“take all of our legal law structures and put them digitize them and have them AI enabled”

“Every 20-year-old is out there doing exactly that.”

“Open-source models are overtaking closed-source models over time.”

“AI is of equal intelligence to the entire human race by 2029, 2030.”

“The there it's unbelievable. I hate the term agentic AI. I just Why? I think it was pretty cool. It sounds like a drug.”

“So really it comes down to the organizational design as a main heuristic for survival in the future.”

“I completely agree. I think the whole small nuclear and melt-proof nuclear is the future.”

“if you can bring the cost of Labor down a lot of the things that we buy it's Labor uh materials cost is important but labor is still up there I'm not going to run the robot but here we see Optimus you know can can I give a bit of framing on this yeah of course this you know one of the things that really blew our minds a few years ago when we first saw the backer robot which robot right and what what what I found unbelievably fascinating about it was that throughout the history of robotics because we've had robots on Factory floors forever you had to program the robot explicitly and you had to say pick up a widget turn 90° move over here turn back put it down rotate it to fit it into the slot and you had to list that and exp and program it in that way which took forever but with Baxter and all of these humanid robots you can literally show it what to do and it literally learns off the off the movements you show it and then replicates it and optimize from there so you don't have to program a robot anymore which is a huge breakthrough and allows you to now expand into all these use cases in really really powerful ways so I think there's an unbelievable explosion of use cases coming and what we've been waiting for is the cost of all of the servo Motors and and movements structures Etc to drop because the original backer robot the the arms cost $110,000 each yeah right and now that's dropping 50% a year and now it's down to I think it's about $1,000 an arm today and it's just going to keep going down so that's really really exciting”

“essentially goods and services will be available in such quantity that that really uh they'll be available to everyone like basically if you want something you can just have it”

“the only option is to guide it it's it's the kid is born or the children are born and it's like you know to use MGA Dot's words are you giving birth are you raising Superman or a super villain”

“we're in 2024 I think within the next four years by 2028 we'll see some government allowing full incorporation ownership by an AI of a company that it owns and operates”

“there will be a point at which uh you want the next generation of chips fantastic what am I going to go to help me design it I'm to go help get an AI to help me design my next generation of chips”

“we will achieve we will reach artificial general intelligence by the start of 2025”

“expect Sergey to come back as the CEO of Google”

“it's the biggest asymmetric bet in human history”

“you should be kind of going hey AI go run a thousand experiments on this domain and figure out what works”

“By the end of this decade, those that are fully utilizing AI and those that are out of business.”

“if you're a slow lumbering dinosaur a large corporation unable to adapt uh then you're dead uh and you've got it's the entrepreneurs I mean open AI effectively with 130 people right does something that no you know that Microsoft and Google had not done now”

“So, any minute now this earthquake is going to go off and take out a thousand miles of the coastline.”

“I think what succeeds is micro-democracies at a city-state level.”

“The AIs will do it all. The AIs will propose it and then we'll have a big fight.”

“Every civilization got to a very complex level. The Incas, the Mayans, the Romans. Then they hit some boundary condition and they instantly collapsed.”